Luis Arraez Traded from Marlins to Padres | Fantasy Baseball Breakdown and Analysis

Discussing the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres trade, which sent Luis Arraez to San Diego.

It’s not too often that there are any meaningful trades early in the MLB season. We had one this weekend though, so let’s break it down!

Explore the best in-season tool to manage lineup/start decisions including waiver pickups, projections, trade suggestions, trade value charts, rest of season rankings, power rankings, and tons more with Fantasy Assistant. Use our fantasy baseball trade analyzer and trade value charts to break down trade scenarios and weekly projections to find the best fantasy options.

Trade Details/Player Stats

The San Diego Padres acquired Luis Arraez from the Miami Marlins, sending Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee, Woo-Suk Go and Nathan Martorella back to Miami.

Arraez is clearly the big piece in this deal. The 27-year-old infielder is best known for his bat. He started a game for San Diego as the designated hitter, and then played second base on Sunday. Arraez also has experience at first and third base, and has made a handful of starts at shortstop and left field over his career.

Arraez has a career .325 average and is coming off a 2023 season in which he hit .354. His .378 career on-base percentage is also really strong.

This season, Arraez is hitting .315, with a .359 OBP. Among his 45 total hits, Arraez has nine doubles, one triple and zero home runs. He’s drove in just six runs (a product of playing on a bad Miami team and hitting at the top of the order), scored 24 runs, walked eight times and struck out on just 11 occasions.

None of the players Miami got in return have MLB experience, which is always a risky trade, especially when talking about a proven hitter like Arraez.

Go played overseas between ages 18-24, posting a 3.18 earned run average. In Double-A this season, Go has a 4.38 ERA and 0-2 record across 12 1/2 innings and 10 games pitched. He has 15 strikeouts and four walks, while allowing seven runs (six earned) on 14 hits.

Head is now the Marlins’ No. 5 prospect, which isn’t as high as what you’d expect for the top prospect in a trade for a player like Arraez.

Head was a first-round pick of the Padres in 2023, and is just 19 years old. He has a .253 average and .342 OBP across his first 48 minor league games, with two homers, 10 doubles, five triples, 20 RBIs, 24 walks, 44 strikeouts and seven stolen bases to his name. Head was playing with the San Diego A-ball team at the time of the trade, and was hitting .237.

Marsee is the team’s No. 10 prospect now. The 22-year-old was a sixth-round pick of the Padres in 2022. 

In three minor league seasons, he’s got a .256 average and .405 OBP across 184 games. Marsee has homered 20 times, doubled 29 times and tripled five times. He’s walked 147 times and struck out on 146 occasions, while also stealing 73 bases. Marsee was playing in Double-A at the time of the trade.

Martorella is the Marlins. No. 11 prospect now. The 23-year-old was a fifth-round pick of the Padres in 2022 and has the best minor league numbers of the bunch. 

Across 188 minor league games in three seasons, Martorella has a .269 average, 373 OBP and 24 homers. He’s also doubled 44 times, tripled once, driven in 123 runs, walked 114 times and struck out 139 times. Martorella, who has eight stolen bases, was also playing in Double-A when the trade occurred. 

I could go deeper into my thoughts on the trade as a whole (I don’t think the Marlins got enough in return), but we’ll stick to fantasy talking points.

Luis Arraez Fantasy Outlook

Since Arraez is the only player in the MLB right now, we’ll break down what the trade does for his fantasy outlook.

Good hitters can hit no matter the team they are on, and transitioning to a better lineup in San Diego should only help Arraez. He hit leadoff for the team in his first two games, so if he continues to get on base, he should score some more runs than he was on pace for with Miami (because San Diego has better hitters in its lineup).

Aside from his runs going up, and his average and OBP either staying about the same or slightly going up, I could see an increase in RBIs as well. Leadoff hitters are rarely going to be great run producers, but his odds of having guys on base (after he bats in the first) is going to go up in San Diego. If Arraez can continue to rack up hits, he should drive in more runs.

All around, this is great for Arraez’s fantasy outlook. His greatest asset is his average and OBP (he’s never really hit for much power), but getting a boost in RBIs only makes Arraez that much better of a fantasy hitter. 

As far as how I’d approach Arraez, I’d think a lot of fantasy owners are going to be in line with my thinking, which will make Arraez difficult to acquire - he’s owned in just about every league, and will likely only be added via trade.

If I owned Arraez, I’d do my best to hold on to him, unless you get blown away by an offer. I’m not saying Arraez should be untouchable, but that it would take a haul to get him off my team. If you are lacking in the power department but solid in average/OBP, maybe someone offers a slugger in return, and that’s when a deal would make sense.

I’m about to go into the dynasty outlooks for the new Miami players, so I’ll add a snippet on Arraez here.

Arraez will likely be in San Diego at least this season and next, and then he’s an unrestricted free agent after that. Being only 27 and not relying on power, I don’t have any worries that Arraez can remain a strong hitter for the next several seasons.

As I said before, good hitters can hit well with any team they are on, and regardless of where Arraez signs his next contract, I’d expect big things out of him. His dynasty value while in San Diego for the next season-plus is pretty solid/strong though.

Miami Prospect Outlooks

The Marlins clearly believe this is a rebuilding season, so getting prospects in return for their best players makes sense - we just didn’t expect it a month or so into the season. You can expect the Marlins to keep shipping their veterans out as the season rolls along.

All three of the prospects Miami have ETAs of at least 2025, with Head being the best prospect but with a 2027 ETA. All three can play the outfield, with Martorella is also listed as a first basemen, so there’s a chance this is the Marlins’ starting outfield several seasons down the line (at least that’s what the team is hoping, even though the team has two other top-10 OF prospects).

The nice thing for the prospects going to Miami is that their path to the big leagues is a lot less complicated now. In San Diego, a lot of veteran and highly-paid players would be in the way, but with Miami (who should keep sending out their veterans), the prospects could have their ETAs moved up a bit.

The prospects are probably only owned in deeper dynasty leagues, and I’m not sure this trade does enough to warrant picking any of them up. If you wanted to take a gamble on one of them, Head is the guy you’d want as the top-ranked prospect, but again, that 2027 ETA makes for a long waiting game.

So while I think the trade benefits all three young prospects, it probably isn’t enough to shift a fantasy owner’s mindset in a deep dynasty league.

As far as Go, he might have a shot to make a fantasy impact this season. He’s got plenty of experience overseas, and although he hasn’t dominated yet in the minor leagues, playing on a bad Marlins’ team means a callup this season is at least somewhat likely, especially if the Marlins continue to sell.

Being a reliever doesn’t leave a lot of room for fantasy relevance, but being a sought-after international signee, Go could possibly earn a high-leverage role (maybe even closer). Of course, that would give him some fantasy relevance and makes him a player to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

#trades #2024-fantasy-baseball