Patriots Running Back Fantasy Football Outlook: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Ezekiel Elliott
The New England Patriots and their offense are a complicated one to crack when it comes to determining which skill players might make the biggest impact for the upcoming season. That remains the case going into 2023, especially after the team kept just two running backs and tight end ends on the initial 53-man roster.
Taking a look at the running back room specifically, the team has a pair of interesting options in Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. Stevenson is ranked 12th among running backs in our ADP tool, while Elliott comes in 44th.
Is one of the backs worth rostering for the upcoming season? Are they going to produce at a high enough level for where they are being picked? Let’s find out together.
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Rhamondre Stevenson Fantasy Football Outlook
Stevenson appears to be the team’s top running back heading into the season, despite the team’s unofficial depth chart listing him and Elliott as co-starters. Stevenson, a fourth-round pick by New England during the 2021 NFL Draft, is coming off a season in which he ran for 1,040 yards and five touchdowns. He also added a team-leading 69 receptions for an additional 421 yards and a score.
That’s a lot of production for a running back, which is why he’s rocketed up draft boards this year and is going in the second round of drafts. With the same quarterback and a receiving corps in need of a true No. 1 option, there’s plenty of reason to believe he could produce to that level, or even higher, again.
There is some pause when you throw Zeke into the picture and with Bill O’Brien back as the team’s offensive coordinator. When O’Brien last was with the Pats, they finished inside the top 10 in offense each season — granted that was with Tom Brady leading the charge and not Mac Jones.
Another reason that many fantasy managers think twice before selecting any New England back is that the offense has rarely let one guy be the workhorse, instead giving the No. 2 guy a decent chunk of the touches. That’s quite a bit to overcome for a back that very well could be your top option depending on how your first several picks unfolded.
Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy Football Outlook
Elliott enters his first season with New England after a tough exit from Dallas. Initially viewed as one of the top backs in the league for multiple years, Elliott eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards just once over the past three seasons and had a career-low 876 yards in 2022, although he still managed to score 12 touchdowns.
Given how Stevenson performed last season, seeing Elliott land in New England was a bit puzzling to many. Instead of getting a shot to become the feature back and revive his career, Zeke will have to earn more playing time with the Pats. Did the running back sign in New England after learning what kind of role was envisioned for him?
One thing working in his favor is his ability to hold onto the ball over the past couple seasons, with just one fumble over that span. With Bill Belichick’s known tendency to put players in the "doghouse" after mistakes, if Elliott can keep taking care of the ball, that bodes well for some extra looks this season. Stevenson also takes good care of the ball though, with just three fumbles across his first two seasons.
Elliott does offer some value as a pass catcher, but has managed just 379 receiving yards since 2020. If Zeke continues to serve as a complementary piece, as he became in 2022, it’s hard to imagine he adds a ton of value in that department.
With all that said, Elliott is still only 28 years old, and the thought of him turning in another solid season or two isn’t too crazy a thought, especially for a guy being drafted in the 10th round or so.
Who Should You Draft?
I’m always skeptical of drafting Patriots skill players, especially running backs. It’d be silly to completely avoid either back in your drafts just because of what team they play for, though. Someone has to produce, and I think both Stevenson and Elliott will have their moments this season in which they power fantasy teams to wins. However, it won’t likely be a recurring theme, and I certainly wouldn’t look to either to be your team’s top option.
I like Stevenson where he’s being drafted if you already have another top back on the roster. That also means you are likely missing out on one of the top quarterbacks and a few of the top receivers, so you’ll have to excel in the rounds that follow. In other words, pick Stevenson if you’re confident in your ability to fill your other positions, otherwise let someone else take the risk instead.
Elliott isn’t my favorite backup pick, but he also isn’t near the bottom of that list either. There’s always the chance he becomes the lead back for the team if Stevenson were to struggle, and there aren't very many other teams where there’s a decent chance of that actually happening. I’d take Elliott as my first running back off the bench, being the guy I start when others are on their bye weeks.
Overall, there are things to like about each of the New England backs, but there are also some drawbacks. Both are solid picks for where they are typically going in drafts, but I would much rather wait for a few extra picks or an additional round before taking either.
