Dolphins Running Back Fantasy Football Outlook With Jeff Wilson Jr. On IR: Raheem Mostert vs. De'Von Achane
All offseason long, the Dolphins have been the first name connected to any high-profile running back that might be available. From Jonathan Taylor to Dalvin Cook to Ezekiel Elliott, they have always been in the mix, and at the end of the day, they got ... no one. With Week 1 just seven days away, the Dolphins have the same running backs they have had since the NFL Draft: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., De'Von Achane, Salvon Ahmed, and Chris Brooks (not counting Myles Gaskin who failed to make the 53-man roster on Tuesday).
Of these backs, the first three are the three that fantasy managers have been targeting. Our ADP tool shows that Achane (RB44), Mostert (RB45), and Wilson (RB52) are each being drafted in the top 150 picks ... but that is about to change. It was announced today that Wilson will be heading to IR with injuries to his "midsection" and fingers, meaning he will miss at least the first four weeks of the season. Even worse, Head Coach Mike McDaniel's comment that "I wouldn't be surprised if [Wilson] would make a return this season," indicates that this injury has a chance to be season-ending.
Following that news, Wilson will likely go undrafted in most fantasy football leagues, while Mostert and Achane can be expected to shoot up draft boards. Let's take a look at their fantasy outlooks, and see who is the player to target with Wilson out.
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Raheem Mostert Fantasy Football Outlook
Mostert has had a unique career arc for an NFL running back. A UDFA in 2015, he bounced between five teams over two years before landing in San Francisco. His 4.4 speed and incredible burst made Mostert a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense, where he had a breakout season in 2019 at 27 years old, rushing for 772 yards. He then managed just eight games (many of which were only partial) due to multiple injuries in 2020, but still finished with over 500 yards on the ground. Unfortunately, he missed essentially the entire 2021 season with a torn meniscus, before leaving San Francisco in the 2022 offseason, following former 49ers' OC Mike McDaniel to Miami.
Mostert finally stayed (mostly) healthy in 2022, posting the best numbers of his career with 1,093 total yards and five combined touchdowns. While his role fluctuated throughout the season, especially after Wilson came aboard in a midseason trade, Mostert started all but three of the Dolphins' games and was easily the team's leading rusher. At 205 pounds, Mostert isn't particularly large for a running back, nor is he an elite pass-catcher, but he still saw his fair share of both goal-line touches and receptions. And his elite speed was still present in his age-30 season: He led the whole NFL in Week 15 with a top speed of 21.23 miles per hour on a kickoff return, which just narrowly missed out on the top 20 fastest plays of the season.
With Wilson now on IR, Mostert is the obvious favorite to again lead the Dolphins' backfield, and he can be expected to average at least the roughly 11 carries and two receptions per game he saw in 2022. That is more than enough touches for the former track star to have a fantasy impact, especially with defenses already scrambling to keep up with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. On the other hand, at 31 years old and with a lengthy injury history, it would not be at all surprising to see him join Wilson on the sideline for at least a game or two this season.
De'Von Achane Fantasy Football Outlook
The Dolphins drafted Achane out of Texas A&M in the third round of this year's draft. Another former track star, Achane is one of the only backs in the league who can claim to be faster than Mostert, thanks to his 4.32 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. That kind of speed is absolutely game-breaking, meaning Achane only needs one chance to break a huge play and have a productive fantasy outing.
However, where Mostert is small, Achane is tiny, weighing in at just 188 pounds. There is a chance he will be able to bulk up now that he is no longer running track and is instead in an NFL weight room, but he is never going to be even an average-sized back. He also is unlikely to play much on passing downs, as he struggled with pass-blocking even in college, posting an abysmal 27.7 PFF pass-blocking grade in his final season at A&M.
There have also been reports, and preseason usage indicates, that Achane may start the season behind veteran Salvon Ahmed in the pecking order (By the way, Ahmed is certainly worth holding through Week 1 in deeper leagues in case he does indeed have a real role). Clearly, with Wilson's move to IR having been predicted by absolutely no one, everything coming out of Miami's camp should be taken with a grain of salt. But these reports are still concerning, and his lack of size may mean that Achane is destined for more of a satellite-back role, getting just a handful of touches each game. He can certainly have a few big weeks in that role, but volume is king in fantasy football, and he wouldn't be someone you'd want in your lineup without more consistent usage.
Who Should You Draft?
This is a very tough question, as it's essentially too late to wait and see how the market adjusts to Wilson's shock trip to IR. You certainly can't expect to get either Mostert or Achane at their current RB40+ ADPs, but they will both likely be drafted in wildly different spots from draft to draft.
For now, I think Mostert is the clear choice to target. This was his backfield last year, and he is almost certainly going to lead it this year, at least for the beginning of the season. He is an obvious candidate to miss time, but attempting to predict injuries is a losing game. I would draft him starting at around RB35, and certainly above the likes of Elijah Mitchell, Rashaad Penny, and Samaje Perine who are currently going in the RB38-RB42 range. If you really like him, I wouldn't think twice about picking him around RB30, after James Cook but before Brian Robinson and AJ Dillon. In this offense, he has a real shot to be an every-week RB2 ... as long as he can stay healthy.
I also think Achane is a decent option, but I fear hype following the injury to Wilson is going to make his draft price more than I am willing to pay. Our ADP tool shows that he had already recently risen above Mostert, and I would definitely draft Mostert before him. Achane is younger and more exciting, and he may have league-winning upside that Mostert does not, but it's very hard to see a back with his size and profile getting the volume necessary to become a weekly fantasy starter.
