Jaguars Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Week 1 Outlook: Christian Kirk vs. Calvin Ridley vs. Zay Jones
There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Jacksonville Jaguars as they get set to open their 2023 season against the Indianapolis Colts. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is coming off a big season and has a ton of skill players at his disposal for the upcoming year. There are running backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby and tight end Evan Engram. The wide receiver room brings back Christian Kirk, the top option in 2022, and Zay Jones, while adding in Calvin Ridley.
The pieces are all there for the Jaguars’ offense to be a special one, but how will touches be distributed amongst everyone? Looking at the three receivers specifically, all three are ranked in the top 60 in our Week 1 projections, so which ones should you start?
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Christian Kirk Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook
Kirk was a reliable target in the passing game all season for Lawrence in his first year in Jacksonville. Kirk played in all 17 regular season games, hauling in 84 of his 133 targets for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns. All of those marks were team highs.
Looking at things on a game-by-game basis, Kirk was targeted at least three times in each game, with eight or more targets in 10 contests. He was held under four catches on just five occasions and was below 40 receiving yards just four times.
In two games against the Colts last year, Kirk had productive fantasy days. In the first game, Kirk caught all six of his targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns. In game two, he went for 24 yards and a touchdown on four catches and five targets.
With another offseason with the team, Kirk's chemistry with Lawrence should help him to another strong season. Adding Ridley into the mix could cut into Kirk’s overall targets, but another offensive threat should also keep defenses from taking Kirk out of gameplans completely.
Kirk is projected at seven targets, 4.4 catches, 54 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns in the opening week.
Calvin Ridley Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook
Ridley will be making his Jaguars’ debut after being traded there from the Atlanta Falcons during the 2022 season, as he did not play last season due to a suspension.
Ridley only played five games in 2021 with the Falcons, but in his last full season in 2020, he produced 1,374 receiving yards and nine touchdowns on 90 receptions, so he’s shown he can be a team’s No. 1 option.
Any doubts fantasy managers might have on the connection between Ridley and Lawrence should have been dispelled in the preseason, as Ridley hauled in all five of his targets from Lawrence for 71 yards. Between the three receivers, Ridley had the most preseason game success with Lawrence, which is part of the reason behind the buzz going around that the Lawrence-to-Ridley connection could become one of the strongest in the entire league.
Time will obviously tell if that comes true or not, but even our projections think that connection starts strong in Week 1, with Ridley at eight targets, 4.9 receptions, 62 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns.
Zay Jones Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook
Jones was the second-leading receiver for the Jags in 2022, hauling in 82 receptions for 823 yards and five scores. He was targeted 121 times, with three or more times in each of the 16 games he played. There was a bit of boom or bust in Jones’ 2022 season, with seven games under 30 receiving yards and six contests over 60 yards. Additionally, three of his five touchdowns came just one game against the Dallas Cowboys.
Jones was relatively held in check in two games against the Colts last year. He caught three of four targets for 23 yards in the first matchup while going for five catches on as many targets and 42 yards in the second game.
With Kirk serving as the top wideout in 2022 and then the addition of Ridley, is there some regression in the future for Jones? It’s not often you have three viable wide receiver fantasy options on the same team, especially on a team that also has a good running game.
Jones is projected at five targets, 3.8 catches, 41 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns for Week 1.
Who Do I Start Week 1?
I’m a big fan of what the Jaguars have assembled on the offensive side of the ball and think they will be one of the top units in the entire NFL. I like several of the team’s skill players from a fantasy aspect, but I don’t think you can start them all.
Kirk and Ridley seem like strong starting options in your Week 1 lineups. With both of them on the field, it's possible neither dominates targets, but their combined presence should mean efficient games from both. Both appear to be safe bets to reach or top their projected scores, even if the game gets lopsided early on, and I would give the edge to Ridley in terms of who has the best day.
I struggle to see Jones producing at the same level, but I certainly think he will get a few opportunities throughout the game. I’d personally stay away from starting Jones in Week 1, just because I think his role shrinks a bit compared to last year. If the Jags come out and run three-receiver sets most of the game, Jones could become a player to start at the flex spot, but for Week 1, I’m against that decision.
