Trade Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence Before It's Too Late

Trevor Lawrence was proclaimed a franchise quarterback during his freshman year of college, when he led Clemson to a national title. He never reached those heights again on a team level, but he showed more than enough to be a no-brainer number one pick in 2021.

There have been ups and downs, but the end of last season signaled a turning point, as the Jaguars won their last five games to win the AFC South then came back from a 27-point deficit to beat the Chargers in the Wild Card round. A close loss to the Chiefs in the Divisional round seemed to point to a team (and quarterback) ascending to the top of the league.

It hasn’t gone quite that way, however, as the Jacksonville is 2-2 and got beat up by division rival Houston in Week 3. Most concerning is the offense, as they have failed to move the ball at times and are 20th in the league with just 20 points per game. 

Lawrence is averaging around 235 passing yards and 25 rushing yards per game; those numbers aren’t terrible, but they aren’t what we expected coming into the season. Lawrence’s yards per game, yards per attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and Passer Rating/QBR are all down from last season.

2022

Lawrence finished in the top-five in quarterback scoring five times last year. He had another five weeks inside the top 12, meaning nearly 60% of his games were start-worthy in a 12-team league. That’s not elite, but it’s very good for a second-year player who could seemingly only get better.

Lawrence significantly improved in every major category from his rookie season to 2022. He went from an overmatched rookie to the next superstar on the rise; it was expected he would be doing what Justin Herbert is right now. The Jags were labeled the easy pick to win their division and a dark-horse Super Bowl contender if Lawrence took a big step forward. Things haven't gone according to plan.

2023

This year, he finished eighth, 32nd, 19th, and 16th in QB scoring over the first four weeks. Small samples create weird coincidences, but the eye test matches up with the numbers, as Lawrence has taken a step back from last season.

Matchup could play a role, as Lawrence was good against the Colts Week 1 (fourth-most passing yards and fifth-most fantasy points allowed to QBs in 2023) but has struggled against better defenses.

Metric	Week 1 @ Colts	Week 2 vs Chiefs	Week 3 vs Texans	Week 4 vs Falcons (London)
Pass Yards/Game Allowed Rank	29th	8th	9th	3rd
Fantasy Points/Game Allowed to QB Rank	28th	8th	9th	14th
Lawrence Fantasy Points QB Rank	8th	32nd	19th	16th

Lawrence played three teams in Weeks 2-4 that have been good against quarterbacks, and he struggled to put up stats against any of the three. It makes sense, and many players fluctuate with matchup, but that's not a player who is a weekly starter. Owners drafted Lawrence with the plan that they wouldn't have to worry about quarterback until his Week 9 bye. He's instead been middling.

This doesn't bold well for the rest of the season, as the Jaguars play a lot of good defenses. The Bills, Jacksonville's Week 5 opponent, have allowed the least fantasy points and fourth-least passing yards to quarterbacks. Week 6 brings relief in a rematch with Indianapolis before a Thursday night matchup with a Saints' defense that's especially tough on the pass.

This trend continues. Matchups after Week 6 against the Saints, 49ers, Texans, Browns, Ravens, and Panthers bring legitimately good pass defenses. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are teams in flux and have struggled, but they have defensive stars and recent history of great defensive play. Tampa Bay is more in the middle, but they have defensive stars of their own at every level.

Only Week 11 and Week 18 meetings with the Titans bring soft matchups, as Tennessee got torn up by passing games last season and are league-average or worse in many metrics this season. That's a lot of weeks with hard matchups and the chance for more middling games.

Jacksonville's Pass Catchers

If Lawrence is going to drop, it makes sense that his weapons will be affected as well. Calvin Ridley came into the season with the upside of a fantasy WR1, and he showed that in Week 1 with eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. He has just seven catches for 110 yards and a touchdown in the other three games combined.

Christian Kirk had at least nine targets in 10 different games last season, including 14 targets in each playoff game. I thought he would fall from fantasy relevancy with the arrival of Ridley, but Kirk has outplayed his new teammate and has games of 11 catches on 14 targets and eight receptions on 12 targets. Kirk's short game and volume have been much more valuable than the big-play ability of Ridley, and I see that continuing.

Evan Engram ranks among the top five tight ends in most major categories: third in targets, tied for first in receptions, second in yards, and fourth in PPR points. He drops to seventh in standard points because he hasn't scored a touchdown, but Engram has been one of the best, most consistent fantasy tight ends of the first month. There's no reason to expect that to stop. He's already been great as Lawrence has struggled, and I can't imagine either player tanking.

Travis Etienne is fourth in the league in carries and seventh in receptions among running backs; he'll be just fine.

The Verdict

I don't see Lawrence bouncing back this fantasy season. He hasn't been good at least half the time, and a lot of tough defenses are coming up. Lawrence played well against a bad defense before struggling the next three games, and I see more games at non-starter level than in the top 10 or 12. If someone will value him as a top-10 quarterback, you could get a valuable running back or wide receiver in return. Someone like Michael Pittman or Joe Mixon would be reasonable.

More likely, someone will be looking to buy low on Lawrence and offer a lesser player. You may just decide to keep Lawrence and hope he figures it out at that point. If you want to just cut bait and get something in return, James Conner or Zay Flowers would be good examples of players you could ask for. I think you will be able to pick up a quarterback each week and get just as good of results as Lawrence will put up on a weekly basis, and filling a hole or fortifying a weak position is a smart move.

There is still value for his skill players though, especially in PPR leagues. Kirk and Engram will keep racking up targets; Kirk (13th in wide receiver targets) is a solid WR3 who can be considered each week, while Engram is one of the best fantasy players at his position. Ridley is worth having on your roster, but he has been more of a boom-or-bust performer to start the season. His performance has gone up and down with Lawrence's, and I recommend seeing if you can trade him as I think he will continue putting up quiet weeks.

#jaguars #trevor-lawrence