Who Should You Start from the Bengals in Week 5? Breaking down Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins
It’s been an abysmal start to the football season for the Cincinnati Bengals offense. It’s left fantasy owners with a number of start/sit decisions they didn’t expect to encounter after drafting Bengals’ players.
Let’s take a deeper dive into some of the offensive numbers, talk about whether or not the offense can get things going and then finally determine which players are starters for week 5.
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The Bengals’ Blunders
The numbers for Cincinnati’s offense are mind blowing considering the expectations the team and unit had coming into the season.
Cincy is dead last in total yards (944) through four games. The Bengals have scored 49 points, ahead of only the New York Giants’ 46 points. The unit is averaging 4 yards a play, tied with the Giants for last.
The Bengals have only turned the ball over three times, so the offensive struggles are almost all about moving the ball efficiently.
Cincy has passed for 664 yards, which is ahead of just three other teams. The team’s net yards gained per pass attempt is an atrocious 4.2, again ahead of only the Giants.
The Bengals aren’t any better on the ground, with just 280 rushing yards, which tops only the Las Vegas Raiders. Cincinnati has averaged 3.7 yards a carry, which is actually better than eight other teams. The Bengals have simply been playing from behind so much that passing the ball is the only way they feel they can catch up.
If you think penalties are preventing the offense from excelling, you’d be wrong. The Bengals have the fourth least amount of penalty yards so far.
Joe Burrow’s Struggles and Injury
Burrow suffered a hamstring injury right at the end of training camp, and it appears to be affecting him in a big way. He’s completed just 87-of-151 passes for a 57.5 completion percentage. He has as many interceptions as touchdowns (2).
Burrow has the worst quarterback rating (69.1) in the entire NFL. His completion percentage is ahead of only first-year starters Anthony Richardson and Jordan Love. Pretty much every passing statistic out there has Burrow among the worst in the league so far.
As much as the team might try and downplay his injury, I think that’s the biggest reason for the extremely slow start. There was talk that Burrow might miss the team’s game in week 3, but he played through it and led the Bengals to their only win.
The way he’s playing right now though, it’d probably be in the team’s best long-term interests to sit Burrow and get him healthy. Jake Browning is the team’s backup, but the team could also potentially make a trade for one of the backups in the league, like Houston Texans’ David Mills or Case Keenum, if they wanted to put Burrow on injured reserve.
I don’t think the Bengals would consider that move yet, but if the team loses the next couple of games and falls way out of the playoff picture before the trade deadline rolls in, I could see it happening.
Burrow just hasn’t looked like his old self, and simply having him on the field hasn’t resulted in anything special offensively.
Joe Mixon’s Consistent but Ineffective Start
Mixon has been one of the more consistent performers at the running back position, but his numbers aren’t ones you’ve come to expect.
Mixon has rushed for at least 56 yards in every contest, but no more than 67. He’s actually finished with more rushing yards with each passing week.
The Bengals’ back has scored one touchdown and has a long run of 22. He hasn’t done much as a pass catcher either, with just 67 receiving yards on nine catches and 13 targets.
Mixon’s 4.2 rushing yards per attempt is actually the highest number he’s produced since 2018. His 14.8 attempts per game is the lowest it's been since his rookie year in 2017.
That begs the question why the Bengals aren’t utilizing Mixon more. I know Burrow and the passing game have looked great in the past, but it isn’t working this year. I could see Mixon being a bigger focal point of the offense starting with this week, and continuing to be one until the passing game can get some of its flow back.
Inconsistency the Name of the Game for Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins , Tyler Boyd
I came into the season viewing Chase, Higgins and Boyd as one of the top wide receiver trios in the game, maybe even the best. They’ve been inconsistent so far.
Chase, widely viewed as one of the top wideouts in the game, caught just 10 passes for 70 yards across the first two weeks of the season. He’s caught 19 passes for 214 yards the last two weeks, but has still not found the end zone.
His yards per target has crept closer to last year’s mark of 7.8 after rough showings in weeks 1 and 2, but is still nearly a full yard short at 6.9. His 9.8 yards per reception figure is nearly half of what he produced as a rookie in 2021 and is 2+ yards shorter than 2022.
For as poor as the Bengals’ offense has looked, as least Chase has put up some respectable fantasy outings the past couple weeks.
Higgins has put together one good showing across four games played, and is now dealing with an injury to his ribs.
Higgins finished with no catches on eight targets in the opener. He had just two catches in weeks 3 and 4, finishing with 21 and 9 receiving yards on eight and four total targets, respectively. His lone standout week was against the Baltimore Ravens in week 2, when he caught eight of the 12 passes thrown his way for 89 yards and two scores.
Higgins yards per reception number is just 10.8, nearly 3 yards fewer than any season in the past. His catch percentage is an abysmal 37.5%, which is about half of where it usually is. His 4 yards a target is more than two times lower than it was a season ago.
Boyd has at least two catches in every contest, but he hasn’t been productive, averaging less than 10 yards a catch in all four weeks. He’s got 127 receiving yards on 17 catches and 27 targets, and still has not scored.
Boyd’s yards per reception is nearly half of what it was last season and his catch percentage is the lowest it’s been in four years.
Who to Start in Week 5
Luckily for the Bengals, week 5 could get a get right sort of game. Cincy will head to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. They’ve been a tough opponent through a month of play, but have been lacking on the defensive side of the ball.
Burrow is the 15th-ranked quarterback for the week, which many would have laughed at at the start of the season. Arizona is the seventh-worst defense in defending opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 20 points a contest.
It’s tough to start Burrow after what he’s shown this season, but the matchup is too good to pass on. This would be my last straw with Burrow.
Mixon is the second-ranked back for the upcoming week. A lot of that has to do with the Cardinals’ defense being the third worst against the run, with an average of 32 fantasy points allowed. Backs have been averaging over 100 yards on the ground and an additional 41.5 yards as pass catchers.
As I talked about before, Mixon’s numbers are actually on par or a touch better than they were in previous seasons, he just hasn’t gotten a big enough workload. I think he’ll be utilized more this coming game as the team looks to get back on track while also shouldering some of the load from Burrow. I’d start Mixon pretty confidently.
Even though Arizona has struggled against quarterbacks, receivers are only averaging 31 fantasy points on average. That ranks the Cardinals as the 12th-best defense against the position. The Cards are allowing the 12th-most yards, they’ve simply done a good job of keeping wideouts out of the end zone.
Let’s start with Higgins, who might miss the game with a fractured rib. I’d avoid Higgins in week 5, even if he does play. He hasn’t produced a ton and the injury is at the very least going to limit his workload.
If Higgins can’t go, that probably means a bigger workload for Boyd, and to an extent, Mixon. For Boyd it’s pretty simple for me: if Higgins plays, bench Boyd; if Higgins can’t go, I’d strongly consider starting Boyd. With one less mouth to feed on offense, that would boost Boyd’s stock, and maybe the Bengals try and get several guys involved to start some positive momentum.
Chase is one of the top wideouts in the game, and he’s shown over the past two weeks that he can produce even when the offense is struggling. For those showings, he's a must start. I’d expect a bigger day from Chase if Higgins can’t play, but I still don’t think he’d be able to put up the most fantasy points among WR in week 5.
That’s because I see Mixon being the biggest beneficiary of the Cardinals’ below average defense. If the short scores go to Mixon, he could lead all players in points scored.
