Thursday Night Fantasy Football Takeaway: Christian Kirk Overtakes Calvin Ridley as Jaguars' No. 1 Receiver
The seventh week of the NFL season kicked off with a pretty entertaining game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints.
Every game of the NFL season provides new talking points for fantasy owners, and the biggest takeaway in the Jaguars’ win was how the wide receivers performed. Calvin Ridley is often considered the team’s top pass catcher, but he was outperformed by several others, most notably Christian Kirk, in the victory.
Let’s dive into the numbers, see if any trends are forming and then advise you on how to proceed.
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Stats from Jacksonville’s Win
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence looked good despite dealing with a knee injury, completing 20-of-29 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown. He also rushed eight times for 59 yards, quelling any doubts about his status going forward.
Jacksonville’s top receiver pretty much all night was Kirk. He finished with six grabs on as many targets, including the game-winning 44-yard touchdown reception late in the fourth quarter. He did lose a fumble early in the contest, but more than made up for it before the final whistle sounded.
What was most surprising to me about how solid Jacksonville’s offense looked was that Ridley barely made an impact.
Ridley’s first target came in the third quarter. Three of his other looks, including one run, came on consecutive plays in the fourth quarter. Ridley ended up with just one catch for 5 yards on four targets. His run went for no yards.
It’s not hard to surpass those statistics, and five teammates did.
Aside from Kirk, tight end Evan Engram caught five passes on seven targets for 45 yards. Wideout, or probably better termed gadget player, Jamal Agnew caught four passes for 36 yards on six targets. Receiver Tim Jones caught both of his targets for 17 yards. Running back Travis Etienne had three catches on five targets for 24 yards.
None of those statlines, outside Kirk, are all that impressive in fantasy standards, but Ridley’s final line is definitely a cause for concern.
Season Statistics
If you look at the season statistics, it’s hard to argue that Kirk isn’t the team’s No. 1 wide receiver over Ridley. Kirk leads the team in targets (55), yards (474) and receiving touchdowns (3).
Ridley doesn’t have poor numbers, but he’s quite a bit behind Kirk. Ridley has caught 27 passes for 48 yards and two touchdowns.
Kirk’s catch percentage is nearly 15% higher than Ridley. Kirk has 100 more yards after the catch.
The two receivers' individual game logs are the most-concerning thing to me though.
Kirk opened the year with just 9 yards on one catch and three targets. Since then, he’s tallied at least three catches, six targets and 49 receiving yards a game. He’s gone over 75 receiving yards four times.
Ridley opened his season with an eight-catch, 101-yard, one touchdown performance on 11 total targets. He’s had only one other big game, catching seven of his eight targets for 122 yards in week 5. In the other five games, he’s had four or fewer catches and 40 or fewer yards. Ridley looks more like a boom-or-bust player than a legitimate No. 1 receiving threat.
Ridley’s inconsistency is especially alarming knowing that Zay Jones has missed several games, leaving a void in the passing game.
The Road Ahead
I’m not trying to make Ridley owners panic, but just informing you to be smart about when you play Ridley.
If the Jaguars want to win the division and make a deep postseason run, they are going to need Ridley to be a consistent contributor. The team’s upcoming schedule could maybe get him back on track.
After the team’s mini bye, Jacksonville will face the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense is currently the fifth worst in the league in slowing opposing wideouts, allowing 43 fantasy points a game.
The extra time before that game should allow Jacksonville to think up ways to get Ridley more involved. If they can’t figure it out against the Steelers on Oct. 29, then they’ll have two weeks to do so, as Jacksonville then has its bye week before facing the San Francisco 49ers on Nov. 12.
There’s favorable matchups after that as the season begins to wind down, but if Ridley continues to struggle, it’s going to be tougher and tougher to justify putting him in starting lineups each week.
If you don’t want to wait and think Ridley is going to keep trending downward, then maybe now is the time to trade him away. His stock is going to be quite a bit lower than the spot you drafted him at, but maybe some fantasy owners are looking at Thursday’s game as an outlier and are still willing to offer a pretty solid player in return. It’s tough to say if Ridley will turn into the top-receiving threat many expected him to be, so I’ll leave that decision up to you.
My opinion is that Ridley will get back on track, but probably not ever get to a true fantasy No. 1 option. I think Kirk is that guy in Jacksonville's offense. Ridley still can help fantasy teams later in the season, and a big breakout game could be the difference in you winning a late-season matchup. I’d hold out hope that the Jaguars can get Ridley more involved, but patience isn’t always a fantasy owner’s top attribute, so I understand if you don’t want to wait and find out.
