Week 10 Fantasy Football Trade Target | Get Packers' Aaron Jones While You Can | Should You Hang On to AJ Dillon?
The fantasy football regular season is winding down, and fantasy owners are looking to make the final touches to their rosters in preparation of making a postseason push.
A name that’s been popular in trade discussions these past few weeks has been Green Bay Packers’ running back Aaron Jones. After what the running back did in week 9, I think you should target him now. Let me tell you why.
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Week 9 Showing
For a little background context, Jones has had a frustrating season. He opened with a 127-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Chicago Bears, but was injured in that contest.
He missed a couple games, came back and tallied just 14 scrimmage yards on six touches before missing some more time. He’s played the past three weeks, but in weeks 7 and 8, Jones tallied just 57 scrimmage yards on 11 touches and 46 scrimmage yards on 11 touches, respectively.
Packers’ fans couldn’t understand why the talented back wasn’t more involved, and fantasy owners that rostered Jones were extremely frustrated at the lack of usage and production.
Before week 9 kicked off, Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur said Jones was ready to go.
It turned out to not be some kind of ploy to force the Los Angeles Rams to prepare more for Jones. The running back was indeed cut loose, as he received 24 touches, turning those into 99 yards and a touchdown. He rushed 20 times for 73 yards and a touchdown, while catching four of his six targets for an additional 26 yards.
Running Back Fantasy Outlook
I wrote another trade story last week that included Jones. At that time, I didn’t believe he would ever truly be unleashed as a lead back again, so he ranked pretty low among the five running backs in question.
After week 9, it looks like the Packers might just let Jones serve as a true lead back. It’s no surprise that the team has won two of its three games when Jones was heavily involved. If they want to keep their faint playoff hopes alive, the Packers will need to keep Jones involved.
We also need to mention AJ Dillon here, as he’s a big reason why I didn’t think Jones would get near the amount of touches a typical workhorse back gets. Dillon still got 10 touches and played 29 offensive snaps, it’s just that the Packers kept utilizing both backs when they were on the field, which allowed both to be fairly productive.
Dillon rushed nine times for 40 yards and also caught a 3-yard pass. His numbers could have been even better if the Packers weren’t in cruise control in the fourth quarter and they gave him the four late carries Emanuel Wilson got.
With the Packers’ passing game not clicking on all cylinders in Jordan Love’s first year as the starting quarterback, it makes sense for the Packers to rely on both Jones and Dillon to power their offense. I’m not sure why it took half the season to realize that, but hopefully that’s apparent now.
Jones might not reach 24 touches every week, especially if Green Bay is playing from behind, but you’d expect him to get somewhere between 15-20 touches even in those kinds of contests. If the Packers are winning, then he should be up in that 20-25 range for touches.
Dillon is also going to get plenty of snaps and touches, but I see his week 9 numbers as probably a ceiling for what he can do the rest of the season.
I don’t anticipate Wilson being consistently involved, although after rushing for 43 yards on four carries last week, maybe he gets a handful of touches every week.
What to do Regarding Green Bay’s Backs
Jones’ fantasy stock definitely improved after week 9, but it’s still fairly low because of how the rest of the season has gone. Check out our player ratings, which currently has Jones as the 25th-ranked running back and 58th-ranked player overall.
There’s always the chance for another injury to pop up, but with his value as low as it is right now, I think it’s the perfect time to trade for Jones. Maybe the owner that currently rosters him was waiting for a decent fantasy showing to finally cut bait with him. He shouldn’t cost a fortune, yet can be a top-10 fantasy back every week moving forward.
There’s also another risk in that week 9 is just a one-week sample size. Maybe the lopsided score allowed Jones to be utilized more often, and the team goes back to limiting Jones to around a dozen touches a week. It’s a possibility, but given the team’s record, they can’t afford to try things out and have to stick with things that are working. What worked last week for the offense was getting Jones involved, and I anticipate him leading the charge for the offense the rest of the season.
As far as Dillon goes, he’s a possible drop candidate after what Jones delivered last week. If there’s a solid fantasy player with lots of upside (Keaton Mitchell and Cade Otton, to name a couple) that you are interested in adding, then I’m fine with dropping Dillon.
Personally, I’d hang on to Dillon, as you then have the Packers’ top handcuff for Jones, and he’s still going to play a decent amount every week. He’s probably only a start option in deeper leagues, but if you can afford to keep him at the end of your bench in standard leagues, I would try to.
This seems like a longshot, but if someone were interested in acquiring Dillon to protect Jones on their roster, I’d definitely be open to pretty much any offer.
Wilson is a player I would keep an eye on in the coming weeks. If he continues to flash some potential on his touches, it’s possible he could carve out a role on offense, whether that be as the No. 3 back or No. 2 guy if Dillon were to struggle or if either Jones or Dillon got hurt. I don’t think he’s quite to the add category in deeper leagues, but another decent showing probably gets him there.
