Thursday Night Football Preview Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: NFL Best Bets and Props, Keaton Mitchell, Mark Andrews, Ja'Marr Chase and More
It's time for Thursday Night Football and we're going to break down everything you need to know to make some money tonight.
I took last week off and want to thank Daniel Hepner for covering for me. I also want to apologize for leaving with him an abomination of a game that saw the Chicago Bears edge out the Carolina Panthers 16-13. Luckily, this week we have a game that shouldn't make us all want to spoon our own eyeballs out. The Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) in an AFC North showdown is about as good of a Thursday Night Football game that we could possibly ask for. We'll get two All-Pro quarterbacks trying to beat two dangerous defenses in a game that will have a massive impact on the AFC playoff picture.
Week 11 Thursday Night Football Best Bets
Despite the Bengals' slow start, this is a heavy-weight battle between two Super Bowl contenders. Even without Tee Higgins, who has been ruled out this week, Cincy has a star-studded offense that can put up points in a hurry. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon are all Pro-Bowlers and more than capable of carrying an offense. Tyler Boyd will see an increased role and is a very good wide receiver in his own right. They're going to need to step up in this one as they are taking on a stout Ravens' defense that has looked like the best in the league. Baltimore is second in the league in yards allowed per game and first in the league allowing just 15.7 points per game.
However, it's the Bengals' defense that leads the NFL in takeaways and turnover differential. They have no easy task trying to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense. While the Bengals have been opportunistic on defense, they haven't necessarily been very good. Cincy ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed per game and is middle of the pack ranking 16th in points allowed per game. Jackson will be armed with Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers and a dangerous trio of running backs.
This is a tough one when it comes to your fantasy team, particularly when it comes to your Bengals. Chase is going to be in your lineup, but you have to decide what to do with Burrow and Mixon. On a week with a bunch of good running backs either on bye or injured, you probably have to start Mixon. However, we would advise you to bench Burrow if you can. It may come back to bite you, nevertheless, we just don't trust him. He should be considered a fringe QB1 this week.
Ravens are tough too, but because their players aren't as good. Jackson and Andrews you're starting if you have them, but Flowers and the running backs are tough calls. We are willing to flex Flowers in PPR leagues despite his underperformance as of late. At running back you can narrow the backfield down to Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell. You can start both backs if needed. Edwards is a much safer option while Mitchell is a high-risk, high-reward back that we want to get into our lineups.
No one should be surprised if either team wins this game. Both teams are more than capable. We would be surprised if Cincy won in a blowout, but that's the only way we'd be shocked. This should be a hard-fought game that could become a defensive battle or a shootout. The Bengals' offense against the Ravens' defense will be the most fun matchup of the game and it will likely decide the outcome.
The Picks
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens Moneyline (-180)
Over/Under O46 (-112)
Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Keaton Mitchell, Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
This is an easy bet. He can hit this line with one carry. He's received carries in two games this season and in those games, he's broken off a 60-yard and 39-yard TD run. The team has been adamant about giving him more snaps and touches this week. Going up against a bad rush defense, this one should be easy money as long as he gets a handful of carries which we expect he will.
Prop #2: Mark Andrews, Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
The Bengals are terrible at defending tight ends this season. Only three teams have given up more yards to the position in 2023. Cincy is allowing 64.5 yards per game to all tight ends this season and Andrews isn't just some tight end, he's the second-best tight end in the league and his team's top option. Unless the Bengals suddenly figure out how to stop tight ends, Andrews will clear this line.
Prop #3: Ja'Marr Chase, Under 7.5 Receptions (-150)
We aren't touching the yardage total for Chase because he's just too explosive, nevertheless, eight receptions is a tough ask against this defense, even with Higgins sidelined. It's odd that this line is so high. He's only managed to catch eight passes in three of nine games this season and his receptions per game have actually dropped with Higgins out. There is no way we aren't taking this bet.