Finding The Top Week 13 Fantasy Football Pickups With Predictive Analytics: Juwan Johnson, Greg Dortch, Jalin Hyatt
Ted takes a look at this week's hottest waiver adds, including Juwan Johnson, Greg Dortch, and Jalin Hyatt.
Let's take a look at fantasy football's most popular waiver wire options heading into Week 13! We can use the Predictive Analytics tool in the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to help identify the top candidates. This tool predicts the Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) for every player, plus predicts their new rostership level following this week's waiver moves. Here are its current predictions for this week:
Top Predicted Week 13 Fantasy Football Adds
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
Honestly, given the state of both waivers and the tight end position, Johnson should have more than his 32% projected EWI. A wide receiver in college, Johnson is big and fast and had some production when given an opportunity down the stretch in 2022. He has struggled with injuries and has generally been unproductive this year, but that could all change going forward.
All three of the Saints' starting wide receivers (Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed) are currently dealing with injuries. As a result, Johnson led the team in routes on Sunday, running 34 routes on Derek Carr's 40 dropbacks. He also saw seven targets, although he caught just four for 45 yards. It is also worth noting that only nine (24.3%) of Johnson's routes came from lined up in-line as a traditional tight end. On the season, he is 10th among qualified TEs in the percentage of his routes that are run lined up as a receiver (either out wide or in the slot) at 76.8%. With the Saints' offense suddenly desperate for playmakers, he should be able to turn that role into a healthy target share. Don't expect him to light the world on fire, but he could provide serviceable fringe TE1 production down the stretch.
Greg Dortch, Arizona Cardinals
When Dortch is on the field, he sees targets. The last two weeks (with rookie WR Michael Wilson out injured) are the only two weeks he has seen more than a 50% snap share all season. Normally, a team's WR4 becoming their WR3 doesn't matter — they don't see more than a couple of targets. But Dortch has seen 16 combined targets over those two weeks, posting double-digit Half-PPR points in both weeks as well. The same thing happened last year: He had as many games below 10% of snaps as he did above 70% (six), but in those six games where he was a part of the offense, he averaged nine targets.
Clearly, Dortch has established a connection with Kyler Murray, and he just needs to be on the field to make use of it. And it's not just dink-and-dunk usage: He has a respectable 10.33 ADOT on the season and made an honestly incredible one-handed touchdown catch on Sunday. Wilson will likely be back eventually, at which point I fully expect Dortch to return to fantasy irrelevance. But with loads of teams on bye in a crucial Week 13, he could be the flex play that saves your season in a deep PPR league. His 25% EWI indicates that he truly is only an option in these deep leagues, but he is likely the best streaming option available in most of them.
Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants
A player I think is a worse streaming option than Dortch, despite being more exciting in just about every way, is Hyatt. Surprisingly, the general community seems to agree, as Hyatt's 23% EWI lands him just lower on the list. A third-round pick out of Tennessee, Hyatt has blazing speed and has mostly been used as an occasional deep threat so far in his rookie season despite the Giants lacking for playmakers at the WR position. However, this Sunday saw him set new career highs in pretty much everything: targets (six), receptions (five), yards (109), and route participation (70%). Could this be the start of a classic late-season breakout for the 22-year-old?
Unfortunately, I don't think so. For one, Hyatt was still on the field for just 60% of the Giants' offensive snaps. This was despite Darius Slayton, the Giants' WR1 (isn't that sad?), being limited in his first game back from injury. If Slayton takes just a few more snaps and routes away from Hyatt as he gets healthier, his role will simply be too small to count on for fantasy purposes (if it isn't already). To make matters worse, the Giants rank fifth-worst in terms of remaining schedule difficulty for wide receivers according to our Strength of Schedule tool. To make matters even worse, Tommy DeVito is the Giants' starting quarterback. He ranks second-worst among QBs with at least 100 attempts in EPA per play with a disgusting -0.22. In a limited role, on a terrible offense, heading into a rough schedule, Hyatt can safely be left on waivers this week.