Are They Breaking Out? Investigating Rashee Rice and Pat Freiermuth

Though we have a good idea of what to expect of teams and players at this point in the season, circumstances still change every week. Injuries open opportunities, and teams will begin giving young players larger roles as they fall out of contention.

With that in mind, two players stood out to in Week 12 as surprising top-five fantasy performers at their positions, and I wondered if those performances were more likely to be one-off events or a sign of things to come the rest of the season.

Rashee Rice is a rookie wide receiver playing with the best quarterback in football, a man consistently let down by receiver drops this season. Pat Freiermuth is a young veteran with little impact on the season before Week 12, coinciding with a major shift in his team's landscape.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs WR: 8 receptions, 107 yards, 1 touchdown

Rice hadn’t topped five catches or 72 yards before Week 12 against the Raiders. There was a lot of buzz around Rice entering his rookie year (as there should be with any receiver playing with Patrick Mahomes), but he has been uneven, finishing with under 50 yards in six of 11 games.

I’ve been saying one Kansas City receiver was going to go off when he makes a connection with Mahomes, and Rice has as good a case as anyone to be that guy. (I previously died on the Kadarius Toney hill; you can still see the body).

The most likely outcome is that Rice will come back to Earth and have more five-catch, 50-yard performances like most weeks. He had only one top-20 WR performance this season before Week 12, and that was Week 7 against the Chargers, possibly the worst pass defense in the league (shout out to Washington, too).

I was hoping to find some evidence of recent success or uptick in performance pointing toward Rice’s ascent, but it’s just not there. This was probably just the best performance of the season for a young player against a compromised defense with a limited best player.

Rice’s Outlook Moving Forward

Rice should be rostered in all leagues. He is a WR3 with upside on a weekly basis, but he can’t be trusted in all matchups. The chance of a big play always looms in this offense; big games will happen.

Maybe most importantly, the Chiefs end the season against the Raiders, Bengals, and Chargers, three teams unshy when it comes to giving up yards. Some of his best work might come at the end of the year, as Rice gets a full season under his belt and the connection strengthens between QB and receiver. Rice might be a fantasy playoff star (though that’s far from a guarantee).

 

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers TE: 9 receptions, 120 yards

Nine catches for 60 yards. That was Freiermuth’s season line before Week 12, though he had caught two touchdowns. That included five missed games with injury in what was a year to forget.

Pittsburgh fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada after Week 11, presenting an obvious catalyst for Freiermuth’s jump in performance. This is the biggest question of the week in Tight End Land: Will Freiermuth benefit from the change in offensive play caller over the rest of the season or was this a one-week blip?

The Steelers were matched up with Cincinnati in Week 12, the team allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. Pittsburgh plays Cincinnati again in Week 16 and has a soft matchup with the Colts in Week 15, but their other games are all against teams in the top 12 in terms of least fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

So, was Freiermuth just feasting on a weak defense, or will the change in coordinator turn around his whole season? I’m skeptical. 

Quarterback Kenny Pickett had his second-most pass attempts and completions and most passing yards of the season in Week 12. This can be seen as a philosophical change, but the Steelers had 33 rush attempts, the same as the number of passes Pickett threw.

I see this as a case of extra volume in a game in which Pittsburgh dominated the time of possession (over 37 minutes, compared to under 23 for the Bengals), and the tight end took advantage of more reps against a team that struggles against his position.

Freiermuth’s Outlook Moving Forward

Before Week 12, Freiermuth hadn’t topped three catches or 47 yards in any game; he only had more than seven yards in a game once, in that 47-yard performance. This is a player who almost literally wasn’t doing ANYTHING in the passing game other than two fluke touchdowns among his few receptions.

Pickett has thrown for multiple touchdowns only once in his career, a two-touchdown game in Week 3 against the Raiders. The Pittsburgh offense isn’t going to suddenly take off with a lack of talent (especially at quarterback), no matter who is calling the plays.

Freiermuth is worth considering in Weeks 15 and 16 when he has good matchups (during the fantasy playoffs, which is a bonus), but he won’t be a weekly starter. The lack of a track record this season and questionable play at the quarterback position has me out on Freiermuth.

 

No Breakouts Here

Probably not what you’re looking for in an article about fantasy football, but I don’t see Week 12 as a breakout performance for either player. It’s just as likely that this was their best game of the year as it is they will top their respective numbers.

Get Rice on your roster if he’s available but treat him as a WR3 to consider against the rest of your roster based on matchups. You can find a better option than Freiermuth, but he’s worth keeping an eye on during Weeks 15 and 16 if you need a streaming option.