Fantasy Football Impact of Justin Jefferson Returning from Injury | Plus a Week 14 Outlook for the Vikings

Discussing Justin Jefferson's possible return from injury and the Vikings' offense as a whole going into week 14.

After what seems like forever, it appears that Minnesota Vikings star receiver Justin Jefferson will return to the field.

Jefferson has not played since week 5, and the Vikings’ offense looks quite a bit different now than it did back then. How does Jefferson’s return impact the offense, and what Vikings can you start in week 14? Let’s dive in.

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Jefferson’s Season So Far

Jefferson was dominant in the early portion of the season, especially from a fantasy perspective.

He opened the season by hauling in 9-of-12 targets for 150 yards. Jefferson had 159 yards on 11 catches and 13 targets in week 2. The star wideout then posted 149 yards and a touchdown on seven catches and 13 targets in week 3.

Minnesota finally got its first win in week 4, when Jefferson had 85 yards and two touchdowns on six grabs and nine targets. He had 28 yards on three catches and six targets in week 5 before going down with a hamstring injury.

Even after missing the team’s last seven games, Jefferson still ranks third on the team in receiving yards (571).

Life Without Jefferson

With Jefferson out, rookie wideout Jordan Addison stepped up and delivered several strong showings. Addison caught a touchdown in the game Jefferson was injured, and then had four more scores in the next three contests, but hasn’t found the end zone in the four games since. He still leads the team with seven scores.

K.J. Osborn also had a couple productive showings in Jefferson’s absence, but injury issues of his own has slowed his production way down. He’s had just six catches in his past three games.

Tight end T.J. Hockenson was a reliable target in the early portion of the season and has been a consistent threat since Jefferson went down, with 50 or more receiving yards in every game. Hockenson is second on the team with five touchdown grabs.

The Vikings’ running game has pretty much been a committee all season, with Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers splitting touches for a while before Ty Chandler replaced Akers a few weeks back.

Mattison has 40 touches over Minnesota’s last three contests. Chandler has 34 touches. Chandler has been the more effective ball carrier, averaging 0.7 yards more per carry. Mattison has been the more effective pass catcher, and all three of his touchdowns are through the air.

The biggest change since Jefferson was last on the field is the starting quarterback. Kirk Cousins had been putting together a fantastic season before going down with a season-ending Achilles injury. Joshua Dobbs was brought in via trade and has served as the team’s starter the past couple games.

Week 14 Fantasy Outlook

There were some questions asked after the Vikings’ last game regarding the quarterback position. Dobbs threw four interceptions and looked awful against the Chicago Bears, a pretty bad defense. After a bye week, the Vikings have decided to keep starting Dobbs.

Minnesota will look to get back on track when facing the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.

It sets up as a tougher game for Dobbs, an average matchup for the receivers and tight ends and favorable game for the running backs. Las Vegas allows an average of 15 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, 24 to running backs, 32 to wide receivers and 12 to tight ends.

In the week 14 projections, Dobbs ranks 10th among quarterbacks. Mattison is 27th in the RB projections, while Chandler slots in 40th. Jefferson comes in eighth among wideouts, while Addison is 40th and Osborn is 59th. Hockenson is the fourth-ranked TE for week 14.

With the Vikings fighting for a playoff spot, they are going to need Jefferson to be his elite self if they want to make a run with Dobbs at QB. I don’t think they will force feed him the ball in his first game back, but I do think they’ll try to get him involved early. I also think it’s possible that he’s on a bit of a snap count restriction, maybe taking a couple plays off after running two or three routes.

With Las Vegas struggling against the run, it’d make a lot of sense to lean on Mattison and Chandler, but Minnesota has been pretty adamant about passing the ball all season, regardless of who has been the quarterback. 

Who to Start in Week 14

Let’s start with Jefferson, since he’s the focus of this story.

Jefferson was one of the highest players taken in fantasy drafts this past fall, and fantasy owners that drafted him and held on to him all this time are chomping at the bit to utilize him again. Even though I expect to see Jefferson eased back into things, I’d still start him this week. Even if he were to only play 15-20 snaps, there’s a chance he makes enough grabs, produces plenty of yards and maybe even a score or two over that span to put up a strong fantasy score.

Addison’s fantasy stock takes a bit of a hit, but I also think in time that Jefferson’s presence on the field will open more things up for the rookie. I’d lean toward starting Addison this week, but would need to see the rest of your options before making a final decision. Addison is definitely a starter in deeper leagues.

Osborn and the rest of the Vikings’ receivers left are guys I’d stay away from in standard leagues. Osborn and Brandon Powell would be options in deeper leagues, but I’d even lean away from starting them in those situations.

A part of the reason why I only consider Jefferson and Addison as starters is because Hockenson is going to suck up a lot of the other passing targets. Hockenson is another guy that should be starting in week 14. He's a must start at this point, and should remain so even with Jefferson back in the mix.

I’d also start Mattison seeing the favorable matchup ahead and after having him dominate the touches over Chandler the last time the Vikings were on the field. I see Chandler as a decent option in deeper leagues.

I get that a lot of fantasy owners are going to be skeptical about starting Dobbs this week, but with Jefferson back, this Vikings’ offense gets taken to a new level. I see Dobbs taking care of the ball this week, and making enough timely throws to rack up some good yardage. If the running backs don’t steal too many touchdowns, I could see Dobbs as a top-10 quarterback this week, so I’d lean toward starting him. I’m also fine benching him if your other QB option has a more favorable matchup, which is pretty likely.

If Jefferson were to suffer a setback between now and Sunday and not be able to suit up, then that just increases my confidence level in starting Mattison, Addison and Hockenson in week 14. I’d lean against starting Dobbs, as I think Minnesota would lean more on the run game without Jefferson around. Chandler, Osborn and Powell would have better starting chances in standard leagues, but I’d still only feel really good about starting them in deeper leagues.

#vikings #justin-jefferson #joshua-dobbs