Week 14 Fantasy Football Expert Tips

It’s nitty gritty time. If you aren’t already into your fantasy playoffs, they are surely coming fast. Every week matters, and one decision could be the difference between moving on or seeing your season end.

The experts here at FantasySP have once again gathered to help you prepare for this weekend’s games. Brant Tedeschi, Mark Morales-Smith, Morgan Rode and Ted Chmyz joined yours truly, Daniel Hepner, to answer five big questions ahead of Week 14.

 

Who will be the most surprising running back to finish in the top 10 in fantasy scoring in Week 14?

Morgan: Minnesota’s Alexander Mattison has a great matchup against the Raiders, and I think he finds the end zone a time or two to land inside the top 10.

Ted: How about Keaton Mitchell? We already know he has big-play ability, and his usage is trending up every single week. In the Ravens' last game before their Week 13 bye, he played 32 snaps (46%), carried the ball nine times (which was more than Justice Hill or Gus Edwards), ran 14 routes (again, more than Hill or Edwards), and saw two targets. Each of those numbers also represents his new career high. Coming out of the bye, the explosive rookie should be even more heavily involved, and one or two big plays could be enough to see him land in the top 10 this week.

Mark: This will be the game in which Mitchell becomes a feature in the offense, and this time he won't be going away. If you've been watching and listening closely, this team wants to get Mitchell more involved, and the bye week after losing your top weapon is the perfect time to revamp the offense. Mitchell will be a top-10 back this week and a league winner in the playoffs. 

Daniel: Zack Moss had some big games in the first five weeks of the season, but Jonathan Taylor slowly took over the workload after returning, leaving Moss irrelevant in fantasy. Taylor’s injury has opened more opportunities for Moss again, and Indianapolis faces Cincinnati this week. The Bengals have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game and second-most rush yards per attempt, setting Moss up for another big week.

 

Who will be the most surprising wide receiver to finish in the top 10 this week?

Brant: Courtland Sutton has six touchdowns in the last seven games and a very favorable matchup against the Chargers. This could be the breakout week he finally tops 100 yards receiving.

Mark: If Joe Flacco gets the start in Cleveland, Elijah Moore could be a top-10 wideout. We saw how good he could be as a rookie, and he will see a ton of targets this week if Flacco is under center. 

Morgan: The Dallas Cowboys' Brandin Cooks. I think the Eagles will try to take away Ceedee Lamb, and Cooks could explode with a monster showing as a result.

Daniel: I’ll go back to the Colts and highlight Michael Pittman. Cincinnati’s defense has struggled all season while we’ve been focused on the offense. The Bengals have allowed the sixth-most pass yards per game, second-most yards per attempt, and the 10th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Pittman has made a connection with Gardner Minshew, especially the last two weeks when he combined for 21 receptions, 212 yards, and a touchdown.

 

Is there a defense you are high on this week that might be available as a streamer?

Mark: Full disclosure: I play exclusively in IDP leagues. I checked out the rankings, and Denver will far outperform expectations against the Chargers. Austin Ekeler looks awful, the wideouts are beat up, and Justin Herbert hasn't become the guy people thought he would. The Broncos' overall numbers are bad because of their early season performance, but the defense is much better now than the overall numbers show.

Morgan: Tampa Bay's defense against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons' offense is simply not good, and I'd target them if some of the other defensive options with good matchups have already been scooped up.

Daniel: The Jacksonville Jaguars have been great against the run and terrible against the pass. There’s more to the story than that, but they face a banged-up Cleveland team this week that will likely start Flacco again but might be missing Amari Cooper. I believe the stars on Jacksonville’s defensive line can control this game and come away with a turnover or two.

 

How confident are you in the returning Justin Jefferson, given his injury status and the quarterback situation in Minnesota? Who will be most affected by his return, for better or worse?

Mark: Confidence doesn't really matter. If Jefferson is playing, he's in your lineup because he's just that good. Jordan Addison is the guy who will be affected most by his return and not for the better. He'll be a TD-or-bust guy for the remainder of the season. Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson eat up too many targets.

Morgan: Jefferson is an elite receiver for a reason, and I am confident in his fantasy outlook if he's cleared to go. Addison's fantasy stock takes a pretty good hit with Jefferson back. Jefferson can open things up for Addison, but it might take a week or two for everything to come together.

Ted: Jefferson is a must-start in all leagues. I'm not worried about his health, as eight weeks is usually more than enough to recover from a hamstring injury, and he's a good enough player to be quarterback-proof. As far as who else is most affected, a weapon like Jefferson is an upgrade for Joshua Dobbs (assuming he's still the starter), but his return hurts both Addison and Hockenson, who saw their target shares increase by 11% and 9%, respectively, while he was out. 

Brant: Hockenson will benefit the most from Jefferson's return, but fantasy owners should temper their expectations until we see a week with him on the field. Minnesota may also have Jefferson on some type of snap count.

 

Do you have a player or two you expect to disappoint owners in Week 14?

Brant: Unfortunately, I think CJ Stroud's superhuman weeks are largely behind him with the injury to Tank Dell. He is still a solid starter but will no longer put up game-changing numbers for fantasy owners. Travis Kelce will have a mediocre game this week and for weeks to come. The KC offense is struggling, and Kelce is now past the prime of his career.

Ted: I think Derrick Henry disappoints this week. King Henry has always been a bit game-script reliant, but it's reached a whole new level this year with the addition of Tyjae Spears. Henry is averaging just 7.08 half-PPR points per game in games the Titans lose by six or more points, and they are 13.5-point underdogs against the red-hot Dolphins in Miami. It sounds sacrilegious and could come back to bite me, but I'm benching Henry in a few leagues this week.

Morgan: Seattle’s Geno Smith is coming off a monster Week 13 showing, but he has a tough test against the 49ers this week. I see him turning the ball over a couple times and finishing as a below-average fantasy QB this week.

Mark: I worry about Josh Allen and Austin Ekeler this week. Allen is going up against Patrick Mahomes and won't be able to resist the urge to try to be Superman. The KC defense is very good and very opportunistic, and they will slow him down and force turnovers if Allen doesn't play within himself. Ekeler just looks bad out there. The Broncos look like such a juicy matchup by the numbers, but he still won't be able to take advantage.