Packers, Cowboys Fantasy Football Start/Sit Decisions: Should You Start Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Tony Pollard, Jayden Reed and More?
Discussing fantasy football options for the Packers and Cowboys playoff game on Sunday.
The NFL playoffs continue with three intriguing Wild Card Round games on Sunday.
Let’s take a look at the fourth game of the playoffs - Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys - and determine what guys you should be starting in playoff fantasy leagues or DFS.
We’ll provide an outlook for each game, so check back for more stories. The Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans article can be read here, the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs article is available here and the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills article is up too.
Quarterback Options
This is one of my favorite quarterback battles of the weekend. Jordan Love leads the surging Packers to take on Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
Love ended the regular season on fire, throwing nine touchdowns to no interceptions over the final four weeks. He threw for at least 200 yards in each game, including a 316-yard outing to clinch a playoff spot last week.
Love has only failed to reach 200 passing yards three times this season, but had just two games over 300 yards. He threw multiple touchdowns in 11 contests, and only had one game without a passing score. Interceptions were a problem toward the start of the season, but he has just one over the past eight weeks.
The first-year starter adds a bit as a ball carrier. He had four rushing scores this season. Love went over 30 rushing yards four times.
Prescott was one of the MVP favorites for a good portion of the season. He faded a bit, but ended the season with eight touchdowns and just two picks over the final three weeks.
Prescott was held under 200 passing yards just four times this season, with five games over 300 yards. He threw touchdowns in all but two games, and had multiple touchdown passes on 11 occasions. Prescott rushed for two touchdowns and went over 30 rushing yards just once.
It’s a pretty even matchup for both quarterbacks, although Prescott’s matchup is a touch more favorable. The Packers’ defense surrendered 15 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, while the Cowboys’ defense allowed 14 fantasy points per week.
Prescott should have his full complement of offensive weapons around him, while Love could be without Christian Watson and AJ Dillon. Cornerback Jaire Alexander could also be out for the Packers, and if he is, it’ll be that much easier for Prescott and the Dallas passing game to go off.
Verdict: Prescott is the better fantasy option in this game, but I’m in favor of starting both guys this week. I see this as a high-scoring outing and think the Packers prevail 38-35. If that comes true, they could be the top two scoring quarterbacks this week.
Running Back Options
With Dillon doubtful, Aaron Jones will serve as the workhorse for Green Bay. Patrick Taylor or Emanuel Wilson could back Jones up if Dillon is out, but I wouldn’t feel confident playing anybody but Jones this week.
Jones got hot at the end of the season and topped 100 rushing yards the past three games. For the season, Jones has nearly 900 total yards and three touchdowns despite missing several games.
With Dillon out in week 18, Taylor and Wilson didn’t get any touches. Dillon would get a few touches if he’s available, but I’d be shocked if it were any more than five.
Tony Pollard was looked to as a top fantasy back coming into the season, but really underwhelmed. Rico Dowdle backs him up, but really only was utilized heavily in blowout games.
Pollard had over 1,300 total yards and six touchdowns this season. Dowdle went for 500 total yards and four scores.
The matchup for the Cowboys’ backs is more favorable. Green Bay’s defense allowed 22 fantasy points to opposing backs this season, although they were better defensively down the stretch. Dallas’ defense allowed 18 fantasy points per week.
Verdict: While I envision a high-scoring game, I don’t see either team’s running game being really great. But because Jones and Pollard are solid pass catchers, I like the idea of starting both guys this week. I’d actually prefer Jones over Pollard. Dowdle would be my third option in this game, but I wouldn’t start him, or any of the Packers’ backups. Dillon would go here if he plays, and Taylor would go ahead of Wilson if Dillon can’t go.
Wide Receiver Options
Watson being out would hurt the Packers, but he’s missed the past several games now, so it’s nothing new. Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath are all involved in the passing game, and would likely all factor in again if Watson were out.
Doubs has the most targets (96), but Reed was the better fantasy option because of his work as a ball carrier. Both caught eight touchdowns this season.
Wicks caught a pair of touchdowns in week 18 and Melton is coming off two straight solid showings. Heath has had a decent fantasy outing since week 14, so I think it’s safe to avoid him.
Dallas is led by CeeDee Lamb. The talented wideout had 1,749 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns this season.
Brandin Cooks played his way into the No. 2 receiver spot. He had 657 yards and eight scores this season.
Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert are other options, but will only get a few targets. They could steal a touchdown from Lamb or Cooks, like Tolbert did in week 18.
Both defenses slow opposing receivers at a similar level. Green Bay’s defense allowed 32 fantasy points to receivers this season, while Dallas’ defense allowed 29 points.
Verdict: Lamb is the clear No. 1 wideout in this contest, and he might finish as the top receiver in the Wild Card Round, especially if Alexander is out. I’d be in favor of starting Reed this week as well - he just is too involved offensively to not play him. If the game turns into the shootout I think it will be, then Cooks and Wicks are other guys I’d want to start. All the other receivers are capable of big outings, but I’d lean against starting them. I’d rank them in this order: Melton, Doubs, Watson, Gallup, Tolbert, Heath.
Tight End Options
There’s some talented young tight ends in this game. Dallas has Jake Ferguson, while Green Bay has Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft.
Musgrave just returned from a multi-week injury, so Kraft is probably the Pack’s best fantasy TE option. With both guys active in week 18, Kraft had 31 yards on three grabs, while Musgrave had 11 yards on one catch and target.
The matchup for the Packers’ tight ends is tougher. The Cowboys’ defense allows just 10 fantasy points to opposing TEs, while the Packers allow 12 points.
Verdict: Ferguson is my favorite tight end in this contest, and I think he’s got a decent chance at scoring. I’d be in favor of starting him. Kraft is the Packers’ TE I’d consider playing, and while I think he’s a sleeper starting option, I wouldn’t be super confident in him. I’d lean against starting Kraft and not consider Musgrave too deeply.
Other Thoughts
Thankfully, I didn’t have to worry about any adverse weather impacting this playoff game. That’s why I like both offenses to tear it up.
Seeing my high score prediction, I wouldn’t want to start either of these team’s defenses this week. If I had to pick a favorite, I’d take the Dallas defense because they simply had a better season.
The kickers could help determine this game, and Dallas has the advantage there.
Brandon Aubrey was 36-of-38 on field goals this season, but both misses came last week, and it’s not a great way to roll into the playoffs. Aubrey was 49-of-52 on his extra points this season.
Rookie Anders Carlson struggled this season for the Packers. He was 27-of-33 on his field goals, while going 34-of-39 on his extra points.
I’d take Aubrey if I needed to make a choice between the two, but I think both guys could be called upon several times, which makes them solid starting options. I see Carlson coming through late with a field goal to help the Packers advance.
