What To Expect In Fantasy Baseball From Pitchers On New Teams: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Lucas Giolito
Lou breaks down the fantasy baseball prospects of three more big-name pitchers who have been on the move this MLB offseason.
This MLB off-season has seen a ton of player movement. There are still high-profile free agents available, and when they sign, it will change the fantasy baseball landscape, but for now, let’s take a look at some big-name pitchers who have already changed teams this offseason and how it impacts their fantasy baseball value.
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Fantasy Outlook Of Lucas Giolito On The Red Sox
Giolito has had a very up-and-down career that seems to have peaked while he was a member of the White Sox. Between 2019 and 2021 in Chicago, Giolito had three consecutive seasons with an ERA in the mid-3s and a K/9 of at least 10. In 2022, still with the White Sox, he took a major step backward, posting a 4.90 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Last season things started okay for Giolito: In 21 starts and 121 innings with the White Sox, he put together a 6-6 record with a 3.79 ERA. But things completely fell apart for him when he was traded to the Angels and then the Guardians. In six starts with the Angels, Giolito posted a 6.89 ERA, and it got even worse in his six starts with the Guardians, where his ERA was 7.04. Giolito allowed 41 home runs in 2023, which led the entire American League, and his move to Boston and the AL East division is a worst-case scenario for a pitcher trying to improve in the HR/9 department. Since December 1st, Giolito has an ADP of 219, with a minimum pick of 122 and a maximum pick of 273. There is literally no upside to taking him as early as 122 overall, and plenty of risks in taking him at his 219 ADP. The 273 max pick is a more comfortable place to draft him at; however, I am completely staying away based on his inability to keep the ball in the park and his landing spot in Boston. The only place that would have been worse is Colorado.
Fantasy Outlook Of Sonny Gray On The Cardinals
Gray has been a very consistent pitcher throughout his career, with the exception of one awful season in Oakland and another terrible season with the Yankees. He has a career 3.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. In 2023, his final season with the Twins, Gray put together what was arguably the most complete season of his career. He made 32 starts for the Twins, posting a 2.70 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, and led all of MLB in HR/9. Gray got his third All-Star nod and finished second in AL Cy Young award voting. He now heads to St. Louis, who desperately needed pitching help, and should fit in very nicely in a division that has no true powerhouse teams. Since December 1st, Gray has an ADP of 121 with a minimum pick of 87 and a maximum pick of 170. I think it’s unlikely that you can get him at that 170 range in your drafts. However, you should be able to get him in the 110-130 range, which is the seventh or eighth round of your 15-team leagues. He would be a low-end SP3 and high-end SP4 in that draft range and be a solid contributor to any fantasy team. The landing spot in St. Louis is great for him. Although they aren’t a small market like Minnesota and Oakland, they are not a big market like the Yankees, which should allow for Gray to be comfortable and perform at the level he has been over the past couple of seasons. He isn’t a great value by any means, but he’s reliable and comes at a great draft-day cost.
Fantasy Outlook Of Kenta Maeda On The Tigers
Maeda has had some injury concerns over the past few seasons, which has affected his fantasy baseball value. He is healthy heading into spring training, though, and has landed in a good spot in Detroit. It’s a big ballpark, and he remains in the AL Central, which is the worst division in MLB. He will have plenty of great matchups against weak-hitting teams and will provide stability to your rotation as long as he is pitching. The good news with Maeda is that he has a great draft day price right now. His ADP is at 249, and he has gone as late as 303 overall. Even if you get him right at his ADP, we’re looking at a mid-16th round pick who would be your sixth or even seventh SP. He provides depth for your rotation at that draft price and does have upside because he has had seasons with a mid-low 3.00s ERA to go with a career 1.16 WHIP and a career 9.9 K/9.
