Three First-Round Fantasy Baseball Picks To Avoid: Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Shohei Ohtani

You can’t win your fantasy baseball league in the first round of your draft, but you can certainly lose your league because of it. Although one pick is unlikely to decide your season, there are three first-round picks this season that could disappoint for one reason or another. 

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Potential First-Round Fantasy Baseball Busts

SS Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP 10) 

There is no doubt that Turner has an elite skill set and is an excellent real-life and fantasy baseball player. There is no way he doesn’t go in the first round of your drafts, either. If it’s your turn to pick and he’s on the board after the first 10 or so picks, I have no problem taking him there, yet some concerning things about his 2023 need to be considered. In 2023, Turner had his lowest batting average (.266) in a season since his rookie year in 2015, and it was the first time in six seasons that he didn’t have a batting average of .298 or higher. Although his power did develop later in the season, with 16 of his 26 homer runs coming in the final two months of the season, it’s also concerning that he hit only 10 homers in the first four months of the year. Turner also struck out a career-high 150 times in 2023, which is a red flag and could explain why he had a horrible batting average by his standards. Turner certainly can deliver first-round value; however, if he continues to take a step backward, you will be disappointed in 2024. 

OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (ADP 11) 

Judge is being drafted in the first round for a number of reasons: He is one of the league’s premier power hitters, hits in a hitter's paradise in Yankee Stadium, and is a perennial contender for AL MVP. The issue with Judge is that he has a sketchy injury history and has played 150 or more games only twice since the start of 2017. He will turn 32 years old in April and is extremely oversized for a baseball player, which has led to hamstring and core injuries. Additionally, last season he saw his batting average drop to .266 all the way down from .311 in 2022, and his RBI and run totals dropped from 131 and 133 to 75 and 79. It wasn’t just his production at the plate that dipped, though: Judge stole a career-high 16 bases in 2022, but he only swiped three bags in 2023, despite the bigger bases leading to an uptick in steals around the league. Judge went from being a five-tool fantasy player in 2022 to arguably being a one-tool player in 2023. If, and it’s a big if, Judge remains healthy for a full season, he is no doubt a first-rounder and possibly a top-seven player in fantasy. However, if his injuries continue to pile up, he will not produce first-rounder-caliber numbers, and that will affect your team. Judge is an even riskier pick in the NFBC formats where there are no IL spots because if he does miss an extended period of time, he will clog up a roster spot, or you may even be forced to cut him if the injury is severe. 

UT Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP 14)

Ohtani is clearly a first-round talent in fantasy baseball. He is an All-World hitter who could lead the league in runs, home runs, and RBIs in any given season, and he just had his career-best season in terms of batting average (.304). The issue I have with Ohtani is that what has always made him so valuable is his ability to both pitch and hit and do both at a high level. In 2024, though, Ohtani will not be pitching. He will just be hitting, and to make matters worse, he is only UT-eligible. Clogging up your UT spot with your first-round pick takes away many possibilities later in the draft as you are trying to construct your roster. Furthermore, Ohtani had Tommy John surgery towards the end of last season, and although he is expected to be ready for Spring Training, there is always a possibility that his injury and recovery from surgery could affect his production at the plate. It also means that his elbow could give out again and force him to miss time in 2024, something you simply cannot afford when you are picking a player in Round 1 who is UT only. The upside is clearly amazing, his landing spot with the Dodgers is equally amazing, there is just risk with Ohtani for the first time since his rookie season.