Week 16 FantasySP Player Prop Tool Bets: Baker Mayfield, Chris Rodriguez, Dalton Kincaid, Pat Freiermuth

Three more regular season NFL weeks. That’s all we have left, friends: Three more weeks. The playoffs are awesome, but there’s nothing like an NFL Sunday during the season. While we mourn the loss of our beloved sport, what better way to take advantage of the remaining time than by throwing a few bucks down on player props.

This is not a list of guaranteed winners, but rather a collection of players with over/under lines that create value based on good/bad matchups. Always wager with caution; I am here to simply give you some of the players that myself and FantasySP project to have better or worse days than expected.

Check out the FantasySP player prop tool, which measures prop lines against projections and shows the most likely players to go over or under their listed numbers. The lines listed are from our prop tool, which uses lines from many sportsbooks, and are accurate as of 3 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Dec. 22.

 

Baker Mayfield, QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

OVER/UNDER 235.5 Passing Yards

Let’s get the Jags out of the way; that’s the easy part. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game and eighth-most per attempt. They have allowed eight quarterbacks to go over 300 yards this season. 

Within the last month, Kenny Pickett (278 passing yards), Jake Browning (354 yards) and Joe Flacco (311 yards) have had big days against the Jaguars' defense. I don’t trust this team to stop anyone from throwing the ball.

Mayfield has thrown for under 200 yards four times this year. He has topped 235 yards eight times in 14 games. There have been struggles, but this is a great matchup, and Mayfield is coming off a game in Green Bay in which he had a perfect passer rating and 381 yards.

While this isn’t an A+ bet, it’s also not that far off. Tampa is driving toward the playoffs, and the Jags are good against the run, inviting teams to throw the ball more. I like Mayfield to go for at least 250 yards in Week 16.

Confidence Rating for Mayfield OVER 235.5 Yards: 5 out of 5

 

Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB Washington Commanders @ New York Jets

OVER/UNDER 34.5 Rushing Yards

The Jets have given up the sixth-most rushing yards per game, but there’s more to the story. They have faced the most rushing attempts per game (31.9) and given up just the 10th-most yards per attempt (4).

I can think of two big reasons for those numbers: First, New York is great against the pass, so teams have more relative success moving the ball on the ground. Second, and maybe most importantly, the Jets are bad. They get beat in lopsided fashion on occasion, and that leads to teams running the ball to bleed the clock.

Those issues aren’t likely to be as prevalent in Week 16 against Washington. The Commanders are on the same level as the Jets, meaning this is more likely to be a close game than a blowout. The teams will likely be playing their preferred style rather than following a game-dependent script.

If Washington plays how they want to, they are going to throw the ball. The Commanders attempt more passes per game than any other team in the league and run the ball at the third-lowest clip. This is a team that wants to air it out.

Our player prop tool projects Rodriguez for just 24.5 yards, 10 less than he would need to reach this prop number. Rodriguez has hit 35 yards just twice all season (including exactly 35 yards last week against the Rams). I feel good about Rodriguez being held to less than 35 this week.

Confidence Rating for Rodriguez UNDER 34.5 Yards: 4 out of 5

 

Dalton Kincaid, TE Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers

OVER/UNDER 28.5 Receiving Yards, 3.5 Receptions

Kincaid had no catches last week against Dallas. In Week 14 against the Chiefs, he had four catches but gained only 21 yards. That’s two straight quiet games, but there is more to the story than simply a player struggling to produce.

FantasySP has Kansas City as the fifth-best team in fantasy against tight ends and Dallas seventh. Pro Football Reference has similar results, particularly for the Chiefs. Kincaid has been matched up with two of the best defenses in football during his short downswing.

On top of that, Buffalo barely threw the ball while dominating Dallas last week. Josh Allen completed just seven of 15 pass attempts for 94 yards. Only three Bills caught a pass, and Stefon Diggs was the only non-RB to do so. I’m willing to look past that game as a script-dependent outlier.

Kincaid has played 14 games and caught at least four passes in 10 of them (with five catches or more in eight games). Fellow tight end Dawson Knox missed five games in the middle of the season, but Kincaid has shown he is the better player and will surely get more opportunities even with his teammate back.

The Chargers are not on the same level as Buffalo’s previous two opponents. They may be closer to the best college defenses than the best NFL defenses, which is a damning statement to even consider. LA has been the seventh-worst team in fantasy against tight ends.

There’s a chance this game will be another blowout and Kincaid will fail to make an impact, but I’m willing to bet there is a big day waiting. Our player prop tool projects Kincaid to finish with 4.2 catches for about 39 yards, beating both prop numbers.

Confidence Ratings for Kincaid

OVER 28.5 Yards: 4 out of 5

OVER 3.5 Receptions: 4 out of 5

 

Pat Freiermuth, TE Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

OVER/UNDER 27.5 Receiving Yards, 2.5 Receptions

The player prop tool likes Freiermuth nearly as much as Kincaid, expecting him to gain 35 yards on three catches. The real star here is the Cincinnati defense: FantasySP and Pro Football Reference both see the Bengals as one of the two worst teams in the league against tight ends (with Denver).

Freiermuth has missed five games and struggled mightily when he has been on the field. His only game with more than three catches or 41 yards was in Week 12, the last time these teams faced off: Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards. His next three biggest yardage games combined aren’t even close to that mark.

I understand anyone who wants to stay away from this bet. Freiermuth hasn’t been nearly as involved in the offense as in his first two seasons, and Mason Rudolph is in line to start for the Steelers. This could be a zero-catch performance.

The third-string passer may be more likely to rely on his tight end, though, and volume close to the last time these teams played (11 targets) would guarantee Freiermuth hits his prop numbers. With a changing landscape, I am relying more on the matchup and expect Freiermuth to excel against a weak tight end defense again.

Confidence Ratings for Freiermuth

OVER 25.5 Yards: 4 out of 5

OVER 2.5 Receptions: 5 out of 5