Veterans To Avoid In Fantasy Baseball: Nolan Arenado, Mike Trout, Chris Sale

At this time of year it can be tough to come up with baseball content that matters. As I pointed out last week, a good majority of top-shelf free agents haven’t been scooped up yet, and we are over two months away from the regular season.

I was fearing I had developed writer’s block for this Friday’s article, but while watching MLB Network’s Top 10 Right Now, it hit me. They were discussing second basemen, and were up to No. 2, which is Jose Altuve. They mentioned he’s entering his age-34 season. They emphasized that his age probably wouldn’t create much of an issue for him. And I started thinking, “No, that’s wrong." Of course turning 34 years old will affect Altuve’s production. Before the age of steroids, it was readily accepted that a player would begin to peak at age 26, with his peak years being the age of 27, 28, and 29. A player should expect to see small regressions every year after that.

Steroids changed that, as Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and others just kept getting better, and better, and better, well into their late 30s. But we are now post-steroids, and players are starting to fall back into the historical norms.

With that in mind, here is a lineup of players, a pitching rotation, and a closer, all over the age of 30, who you should think twice about drafting in fantasy baseball this season:

Fantasy Baseball Aging Veterans To Avoid

C Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals

In 2021, Perez hit a monstrous 48 HRs. In 2022, he regressed, hitting less than half as many, with only 23 bombs. Last season, he plateaued, hitting 23 HRs again … but in 93 more ABs. And over his last three seasons his OPS has fallen from .860, to .757, to only .714 in 2023. Catcher is a thin position in fantasy basbeall, and Perez still has the potential to crank 20+ HRs out of the park, but don’t overpay for the name.

1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

Goldschmidt is getting to the point in his career where talk of the Hall of Fame is in the air. He’s had a great career to this point, and at age 36, he has accumulated some amazing stats … but he is 36. His 25 HRs in 2023 was his lowest total since 2016, and the first time since then that he fell below 30 bombs. His .268 AVG last season was 24 points lower than his three-year average. And his .810 OPS last season was well below his .982 OPS just one season earlier. He is trending in the wrong direction, now is not the time to invest.

2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

From 2013 to 2017, Altuve was one of the most durable players in the game. In those five seasons, he only missed 32 games total. Over the last six seasons, he’s missed 184 games. And although his production has been extremely reliable, even generating an uptick in power, his ability to stay on the field must be considered moving forward. 

3B Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals

Goldschmidt’s fellow cornerman in St.Louis is showing some signs of a slight dip. He’s four years younger than Goldy, but last season already saw some regression. He still had a solid season in 2023, hitting 26 HRs with 93 RBIs, but his numbers were lower than usual across the board. It was his first time falling below 30 HRs and 100 RBIs since 2014. And his OPS was 50 points below his three-season average.

SS Javier Báez, Detroit Tigers

His last two seasons have been absolutely awful with the Tigers. This regression is already in free fall. After hitting 31 HRs in 2021 with the Mets, he has only hit a combined 26 in his two years in Motown. Although he never sported a fantastic average, it was at least respectable. Last year, he only batted .222, and his OPS was an abysmal .592. Some of the players on this list may have bounceback years, but I can’t see Baez being one of them. He may be a guy who would benefit from a change of scenery, but there is no way the Tigers will be able to free themselves of the remaining four years and $98 million on his contract, so he's going nowhere.

OF Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

What can we say about Stanton? He is one of the most perplexing players in the game. His sheer power and presence have some debating whether he has a chance to get into the Hall Of Fame. At the end of last season, he eclipsed career 400 HRs at 34 years old, giving him an outside shot at reaching 500. But his career .259 AVG (and going down) will surely hinder his claim at immortality. He has a career .878 OPS but was only at .695 in 2023. And in 371 2023 ABs he couldn’t break the Mendoza line, hitting an anemic .191. 

OF George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays

Springer had exactly 100 more ABs in 2023 compared to 2022, yet his numbers were either flat or down. He scored two fewer runs, hit four fewer HRs, and drove in four fewer bases. His average was down, and his OPS went from .814 to .732. 

OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

This is as much about his recent injuries as any falloff on the field. When he’s out there, Trout still produces like one of the game's best players, but it’s getting tougher and tougher to bank on him being out there. He hasn’t played over 140 games since 2016. Last year he played 82 games, basically half a season. The easy thing to do is to double the figures and say that if he can stay healthy he’ll put up monster numbers … but that just isn’t the case. His numbers have regressed. In his 308 ABs, which is a solid sample size, he only batted .263 with an .857 OPS. An .857 OPS is by no means bad, but Trout's career OPS is .984 and in 2022 he had a .999 OPS. Between the injury risk and the slight regression it is time to look away from this generation’s Mickey Mantle. 

P Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

In Eovaldi’s 14 seasons, he’s only had 25 starts or more four times. Last season he made 25 starts, to go along with a postseason run. He threw 144 innings which is the fourth most he’s ever thrown. This type of production is the exception not the rule for Eovaldi, and it is extremely unlikely he will duplicate it. 

P Marcus Stroman, New York Yankees

Stroman’s last two seasons with the Cubs were nearly identical. He made 25 starts each year with exactly 119 Ks. His ratios did drop a bit in 2023: His ERA went up nearly half a run to 3.95, and his WHIP went up to 1.26 from 1.15. Stroman is now pitching in the tough AL East after five seasons in the NL, which will also negatively affect his numbers.

P Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves

Morton is now well above 30 years old, in fact he is 40. He’s been an amazingly durable and effective pitcher for so many years that he has basically had two careers. Up until 2018, he had never made 30 starts in a season, but every year since he has surpassed that figure. However, his numbers have dipped in each of the last three seasons, from 32 starts, to 31 starts, to 30 starts in 2023. His innings have decreased each season as well. And most alarming was his WHIP this past year. Due to walking a career-high 83 batters, Morton's WHIP rose to 1.43. 

P Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

Darvish’s career has been feast or famine. He has made 30 or more starts in five different seasons, and 29 starts in one other. But he missed the entire 2015 season, and made only eight starts in 2018. He’s now 37 years old, coming off a season where nagging injuries only allowed him to make 24 starts. His 4.55 ERA was the second worst of his career, as was his 1.30 WHIP. I'm not betting on another feast year from Darvish.

P Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Sale has never been able to really stay healthy for any long period of time. Since 2020, he has only made a total of 31 starts and thrown 151 innings with the Red Sox. The Braves took a flyer, trading for him. With Boston eating much of his contract, the risk may be worth the reward, but Sale is now 34 years old. The heart may want to go on, but the arm just doesn’t have many more bullets left in it. From 2015 to 2017, he threw 650 innings and made over 30 starts each season. Since then, he’s been on a steady decline each year.

CL Kenley Jansen, Boston Red Sox

Since 2012, Jansen has made less than 60 appearances only once. This past year, he only had 51 appearances. He also had six losses, which was the most of his career. He only converted 29 saves. The last time he had fewer than 30 saves was in 2013. And his 1.28 WHIP was the highest he’s ever posted. He’s in the last year of his contract with a subpar Red Sox team that doesn’t stand to get him many save chances, with a trend arrow pointing straight down.