Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: American League Edition (May 29)

Last Friday, I took a look at the closer situations for every National League team. Today, it’s the American League’s turn. As this is the first AL edition of this article, it will be a long one, so let’s get right into it.

Baltimore Orioles

No team has had more save opportunities to go around than the Orioles, who have given their bullpen 29 chances to close things out. Unfortunately, there is no one player who has claimed all of those chances.

Craig Kimbrel leads with 12 saves in 15 opportunities, but he was removed from the ninth inning earlier in May after a rough stretch and while dealing with back issues. Thanks to Kimbrel’s struggles, the Orioles have given plenty of relievers a chance to emerge (nine total Baltimore pitchers have seen at least one save opportunity), but no one pitcher has taken the job and run with it.

Yennier Cano and Jacob Webb are second to Kimbrel with two saves apiece, but both also have xERAs and FIPs higher than Kimbrel’s. Now, Kimbrel seems to be earning his job back, recording four saves in the last 10 days without allowing a single earned run.

For fantasy purposes, Kimbrel’s 36.7% K rate will always be very attractive, although a very high hard-hit rate and walk rate indicate his struggles might not be over quite yet.

Boston Red Sox

Kenley Jansen was one of the best closers of the 2010s, but the 36-year-old is starting to show signs of age. His 3.87 xERA so far in 2024 is a jump up from his 3.14 in 2023, which was already easily the highest of his career.

Aside from a nice 30.7% K rate and a still elite 112 Pitching+, his peripherals leave a lot to be desired. However, he is still Boston’s go-to option in the ninth inning, with nine saves out of 10 opportunities while no other member of their bullpen has more than two.

Chris Martin, Justin Slaten and Greg Weissert each have lower xERAs and arguably better peripherals than Jansen, but this is still firmly his job for now.

New York Yankees

I’m going to keep this one short and sweet: Clay Holmes is the Yankees’ closer. The Yankees are tied with the Orioles at a league-leading 29 save opportunities, and 18 of them have gone to Holmes (15 conversions).

No other player in pinstripes has recorded a save since Dennis Santana on May 5. Holmes has elite numbers across the board, and he’s unlikely to lose the closer’s spot anytime soon.

Tampa Bay Rays

He has had a rollercoaster of a season, with grip issues, an IL stint thanks to a nerve problem, and his highest ERA since his rookie season at 4.50, but Pete Fairbanks is still the Rays’ closer. His peripherals are also much more encouraging than his actual outcomes, as he has just a 2.51 xERA and hasn’t allowed a single barrel in 14 innings.

A few other Rays relievers have had chances at saves, but my favorite of the bunch to keep an eye on is Garrett Cleavinger. Cleavinger’s 2023 season ended with an ACL tear, but he has been on fire to start 2024, with a Statcast page absolutely loaded with red circles, including a 33% K rate and a 1.66 ERA.

Cleavinger has mostly been called upon in low-leverage situations thus far, but he has converted all three of his save opportunities and has four holds (if that matters in your league) and four wins to boot.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jordan Romano easily leads Toronto’s relievers with eight save opportunities and has converted seven of them, but those numbers don’t tell the whole story. He has struggled mightily, with both an actual ERA and xERA above 6.00.

Meanwhile, Yimi Garcia has just a 1.35 ERA and 0.70 WHIP to go with a 33.3% K rate and a 155 Pitching +. Garcia did blow his (and the team’s) most recent save opportunity on Sunday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually takes over the ninth inning permanently as Romano’s peripherals catch up to him.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have used a closer-by-committee approach so far this season, but it’s clear who is the most appealing fantasy option in their bullpen: After spending the last two years as a starter, Michael Kopech has been throwing gas in his new relief role, averaging 99 miles per hour on his fastball. He also has an impressive 32.4% K rate and leads the team with five saves (seven opportunities).

His actual results, including a 4.18 ERA and a 5.24 FIP, leave more to be desired, but the upside is certainly there. Both John Brebbia and Jordan Leasure have been and likely will continue to be involved, but Kopech is the only player worth watching in most fantasy formats.

Cleveland Guardians

You likely don’t need me to tell you that Emmanuel Clase, who is tied for the MLB lead with 17 saves and has a 0.33 ERA, is locked in as the Guardians’ closer and one of the best fantasy baseball options at the relief position.

For what it’s worth, my sneaky pick to take over closer duties if (fantasy gods forbid it) Clase were to miss time is Hunter Gaddis, who has blown all three of his save opportunities but has an impressive 1.71 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.

Detroit Tigers

Jason Foley has handled closer duties for the Tigers so far this season, with 11 saves in 13 opportunities. He hasn’t been hugely impressive, with a 3.54 ERA and a 4.59 xERA, but he has been getting the job done. Adding to Foley’s job security, no one from the rest of the Tigers’ bullpen is really making a case to take over the ninth inning.

Andrew Chafin, Alex Faedo, Alex Lange, Shelby Miller and Will Vest have all seen at least two save opportunities, but the lowest ERA to be found in that group is Vest at 3.47, and there are hardly any intriguing peripherals to speak of. Unless he hits a run of bad games and blown saves (which is certainly possible), I expect Foley to continue to be the Tigers’ go-to guy, if only by default.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals’ situation is similar to the Tigers’. Like Foley, James McArthur easily leads his team in saves with 11, although he has seen one more opportunity than his Tiger counterpart at 14. And like Foley, McArthur hasn’t exactly been dominant: Aside from a pristine 3% walk rate, nothing really stands out about his profile, and his 3.80 ERA and 4.02 FIP don’t exactly scream “elite closer.”

But the Royals' other relievers, notably John Schreiber (three saves in four chances) and Chris Stratton (one out of two), haven’t been much better. Schreiber does have a 1.93 ERA, but he blew his last save opportunity and has a much worse 3.66 xERA. Expect McArthur to hold onto the closer spot in Kansas City for at least a bit longer.

Minnesota Twins

After starting the season on the IL with an oblique strain, Jhoan Duran has cemented himself as the Twins’ closer over the past month. He hasn’t been perfect, with a 3.46 ERA and two losses on his record. But he is a perfect eight for eight in save opportunities, including racking up five saves over just the last seven days.

Griffin Jax has probably been the better pitcher so far this season, with a 2.31 ERA (2.24 xERA), 0.90 WHIP, and 34.1% K rate, but he also has two blown saves and hasn’t seen a save opportunity in over two weeks.

Duran, who simply looks the part of a dominant closer with an absurd triple-digit average on his fastball, is likely the better target for saves, while Jax will be more valuable if your league counts holds (he has nine on the season).

Houston Astros

Shockingly, the Astros rank dead last in MLB with just nine saves as a team 55 games into the season. Seven of those belong to their big free agent acquisition Josh Hader, whose numbers are a mixed bag so far in his return to Houston. The five-time All-Star’s 4.13 ERA is undoubtedly disappointing, but he is still striking out 40% of the batters he faces and has a much more palatable 2.77 xERA.

Hader has also heated up lately, with five saves in five chances, a 1.35 ERA, and 0.60 WHIP over the last month. It may be too late now, but Hader is an intriguing buy-low trade target, as both he and the Astros should continue to see positive regression going forward and his job is safe (both because of his big contract and because Ryan Pressly has blown all four of his save opportunities). 

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have a two-horse race for the closer job between Carlos Estevez and Luis Garcia, with Estevez firmly in the lead for now with eight saves in 11 opportunities to Garcia’s three in five. Estevez has a marginally higher ERA (4.76 to 4.63), but the pair actually have identical xERAs of 3.26.

They also land very close to one another in K rate (24.6% for Estevez and 24.2% for Garcia) and WHIP (1.18 and 1.07 respectively). Lefty Matt Moore is also lurking, but with no real reason to predict otherwise, I expect Estevez to hold onto the top spot for the foreseeable future. 

Oakland Athletics

Mason Miller is one of the best surprises of the early 2024 season, as he has emerged from seemingly nowhere to be the best closer in the country. He leads all pitchers in each of the following categories: xERA, xBA, average fastball velocity (101!!), chase rate, whiff rate and K rate.

His FIP is 0.09. He has yet to allow a home run in 24 innings. He is a perfect 11 for 11 in save opportunities. I could keep going, but I think you get the picture: Miller is on fire, and anyone lucky enough to have him on their fantasy team should just ride the wave.

Seattle Mariners

He hasn’t been quite as good as Miller (no one has), but Andres Munoz is putting up an excellent season of his own for the Mariners. With 11 saves in 12 chances, a 35.2% K rate, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 1.54 ERA, he is providing everything fantasy managers could ask for in a closer.

Ryne Stanek will get an occasional save of his own, and Gabe Speier has also been solid, but this is clearly Munoz’s job to lose.

Texas Rangers

We finish with our third straight dominant reliever from the AL West, as Kirby Yates has been excellent so far this season. He has been pristine, with a 0.90 ERA backed up by a 99th percentile 1.82 xERA, a 32.5% K rate, and eight saves in eight opportunities.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Rangers’ bullpen has combined for two saves and EIGHT blown saves. It is worth noting that David Robertson has actually been used in higher-leverage situations (facing a 2.4 average leverage index compared to Yates’ 1.8) and has also been good with a 3.03 xERA and 33.3% K rate. But Robertson himself has been responsible for four of those blown saves, so Yates’ role is not in any danger.