Fantasy Baseball Outfield Draft Bust Candidates for 2025: Fernando Tatis Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna Jr. and More

Let's wrap up my fantasy baseball draft bust series with the outfielder position.

We've already looked at busts for catcher, designated hitter, relief pitcher, starting pitcher, first base, second base, third base and shortstop.

Check back soon for the draft steal write up for outfielders. Also be sure to check out my top-10 rankings for outfielders (redraft and dynasty).

Check out Fantasy Baseball Average Draft Position data for 2025 and get ready for your fantasy drafts by utilizing the FantasySP Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis is my No. 5 fantasy outfielder for the 2025 season. He was barely a top-50 fantasy outfielder in 2024 because he missed so many games, and his durability is why I have him as a bust candidate.

There's no denying he's a top-end fantasy hitter when he's healthy, but he's yet to play in over 141 games in a single season. Tatis played in 102 games last season.

He's a career .279 hitter and has a .350 OBP. Add those with his 162-game averages of 30 home runs, 101 RBIs, 29 stolen bases and 115 runs scored and you are talking about one of the best players in the game.

Tatis just misses too many games for my liking, and if he misses a bunch in 2025, there's a chance he doesn't finish anywhere near his draft slot. Tatis is the seventh outfielder off draft boards and going around pick 21 right now.

I always hope for injury-free seasons, but at some point, players get the injury bug label, and Tatis is one of them. If you end up spending an early pick on him, make sure you have a backup plan or two in place in case he misses a significant amount of time again.

2. Julio Rodriguez

Rodriguez is my No. 7 fantasy outfielder for 2025. He is ninth on the ADP list so far, going around pick 31. He was not a top-30 outfielder last season.

Rodriguez played in 143 games, so it was really his play on the field that suffered. He had a respectable .273 average and .325 on-base percentage, although those were both career lows.

After 60 home runs combined over his first two seasons, Rodriguez only had 20 dingers last season. His RBIs dropped from 103 to 68 and he stole 13 less bases and scored 26 less runs than in 2023.

Seattle's offense as a whole was bad in 2024, and I expect bounceback seasons for several players. I have Rodriguez in my top-10 fantasy outfielders, so you know I'm thinking he bounces back.

However, after what we saw last season, he's still a bust candidate because of where he's being drafted. Maybe his stock will drop a bit before the season, but as is, I do not mind taking Rodriguez around his ADP.

I'd prefer if Rodriguez was my No. 2 outfielder, because I don't want to rely fully on him again in 2025. He doesn't have much room to be a draft steal based on where he's going in drafts, while having a much bigger chance to be a bust again.

3. Ronald Acuna Jr.

It doesn't feel right putting Acuna in the bust category, but I almost had to after looking at his draft data and considering his situation. He's coming off another major knee injury, yet still is a top-10 fantasy outfielder. 

He didn't make my top 10, but was just off it as an honorable mention. Acuna is OF8 off draft boards so far, going around pick 25.

It was recently reported that he wasn't going to be rushed back into action, and that means he could miss a month or more of the season.

That puts Acuna behind the 8-ball already, and coming off a major injury, you're really taking a risk hoping he can bounce back to an elite level for the remainder of the season. 

Sure, if he is elite when he returns, he could be one of the best fantasy hitters in the game, not just at the position. But if he misses time to begin the season, he's also likely going to get a few more off days throughout the year. Playing in 30 or more less games than others is going to make it really hard for Acuna to be a top-10 fantasy outfielder.

With a career .289 average and .379 OBP, there's a lot to like with Acuna, but he feels like a much safer pick in the double digits among outfielder. The closer to 20th I can get him, the better.

I'm not sure if his draft stock will drop after the news, but it definitely would if he's ruled out for several weeks to begin the year. If I was drafting soon, I'd pass on Acuna unless he fell to around pick 40 or so.

As the season approaches and a better timeline is established for Acuna, his stock could drop enough to make him maybe worth picking in round 5 or later.

He'll be a fascinating draft pick to follow between now and the regular season.

4. Oneil Cruz

Cruz was not even on my honorable mention list among outfielders, but is a top-25 outfielder and going around pick 100 on average. Cruz finished one spot ahead of Rodriguez in points leagues last season.

I get the appeal with Cruz, but it feels like we just keep waiting for him to erupt, and I simply don't know if we ever get it. Sure, in his first full season in 2024, he looked better, but I'm not sure we should be expecting a massive leap forward either.

In 146 games, Cruz had a .259 average and a .324 OBP. He hit 21 home runs, drove in 76 runs, stole 22 bases and scored 72 runs. 

Those are all good numbers, and could be even better if he gets in more games, but he also struck out 181 times. That's a lot of negative points, and he could top 200 Ks with more games.

The Pirates' lineup isn't great, and if I had to guess, I doubt it adds much talent at the trade deadline, or before the season. Cruz hits in the heart of the lineup, but that's not as great for his fantasy outlook as it would be with a different team.

I think a trade to a contender could unlock Cruz's full potential, but I think he'll max out as a good fantasy option in Pittsburgh.

5. Randy Arozarena

I hate to have two hitters from the same team in one article, but I think Arozarena is a bit overrated this season too.

He also wasn't an honorable mention for my top-10 list in my eyes. He's the 27th outfielder off draft boards and going around pick 108. I simply think that's far too early. He finished six spots behind Arozarena last season.

In 154 games last season, Arozarena had just a .219 average, but a .332 OBP. He hit 20 homers, drove in 60 runs, stole 20 bases and scored 77 runs. Arozarena had a .231 average, .356 OBP, five home runs, 23 RBIs, four stolen bases and 32 runs scored in 54 games with Seattle after a trade, so I get why he's going where he is in drafts.

That was a small sample size of action though, and I'm not convinced that he's going to be able to build on those numbers in a full season with the team. I think his big name is making him go a bit earlier than he should be.

I'd prefer to take him in the 30s among the outfielders, which means at least a round later than he's currently going. As a secondary option, I'm OK taking him around his ADP, but if you are thinking of him as a top fantasy outfielder, I'd definitely pivot to another player.

I just think his ADP is too early right now, and that he's got a much better chance to bust than be a steal for 2025.