Fantasy Football Players Who Will Bounce Back in the Second Half: Joe Burrow, Alexander Mattison, Tee Higgins, Dalton Kincaid

Everyone overreacts to each week of the NFL season, but there are 17 others just like it, and they combine like chapters in a book to tell the story of the season. Players who started hot will fall off as circumstances change or they deal with injuries, and others who started slow will get increased opportunities and work back from their own maladies.

Let's take a look at players from each skill position that will "bounce back" in the second half of the year and perform better in fantasy. A lot of this is relative: a star might have started slow, and they are expected to return to that top level, or a young player might have had to learn the ropes before being thrust into the starting lineup.

I'll highlight one player at each position and give a few honorable mentions. This is an incomplete list; you could name more players at each position who fit the bill. Space is limited, though, and these are guys standing out to me right now.

 

Quarterback

Joe Burrow, CIN

Burrow started Week 1 after missing the whole preseason with a calf injury. It’s been a tale of two months, as Burrow’s first four games were drastically worse than his last four have been (with the Week 7 bye mixed in):

Games	Average Comp - Att	Average Yards	Total TD - INT	Average QB Fantasy Rank
Weeks 1-4	21.8 - 37.8	182	2 - 2	26.5
Weeks 5-9 (Week 7 Bye)	29.8 - 39.3	283.3	10 - 2	8

This bounce back has already started. Burrow is playing like Burrow instead of the Desmond-Ridder-clone he was replaced by during Weeks 1-4. Burrow has completed eight more passes per game for 100 more yards while throwing eight more touchdowns during the latter span of games. He transformed from unstartable in fantasy to a top-10 QB.

Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are dealing with injuries, but this team looks ready to compete in a wide-open AFC.

A few tough matchups loom, with Houston, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Cleveland showing up in the second half, but those games are offset by easier tilts against Pittsburgh (twice), Indianapolis, and Minnesota. With Burrow already showing form, I’ll give a few extra words to some honorable mentions.

Honorable Mentions

Kyler Murray, ARI: Murray will make his return in Week 10, and he is a player who should be rostered in every fantasy league. He may not return immediately to his star form, but his running ability gives him starter upside before he even steps on to the field. Joshua Dobbs was a good fantasy QB in Arizona, so I have to figure Murray can reach that status too.

Joshua Dobbs, MIN: Speaking of Dobbs, it’s not that he’s bouncing back from a weak first half; he scored the 16th-most points among quarterbacks in the first seven weeks of the season (his games started for the Cardinals). Playing with Minnesota, though, he will have a much better supporting cast, and he showed last week he can be a fantasy option right away, mostly due to his running. I expect Dobbs to have a top-15 second half.

Deshaun Watson, CLE: Watson hasn’t played in essentially five of the first nine weeks (including Cleveland’s bye and a game he left early in the first quarter). He had three top-10 fantasy finishes in the four weeks he did play. A healthy Watson is a fantasy starter many weeks, also adding value with his rushing ability.

 

Running Back

Alexander Mattison, MIN

Mattison has scored the 25th-most fantasy points among running backs in standard scoring and 24th in PPR. He’s been a good RB2/flex option who can be deployed in the right matchups. There is reason to think Mattison has a brighter outlook the second half of the season, however, mostly because of the major changes to his team the last few weeks.

I wrote last week about how I expected the Vikings offense to operate after losing Kirk Cousins. The basis was that the team would run the ball more with rookie Jaren Hall taking over and newly acquired Dobbs possibly stepping in.

Well, speed up that process, because Hall left Week 9 with an injury, and Dobbs stepped in with virtually zero practice time and led a successful offense. Dobbs threw for just 158 yards on 30 attempts, but he ran the ball seven times for 66 yards and a touchdown, showing his biggest asset to the team.

One more fallout from Week 9: Cam Akers tore his Achilles and will miss the rest of the season. Most of the backfield touches are lining up to be fed to Mattison, and those will probably be abundant over the rest of the season.

Scoring the 25th-most points isn’t bad, but I see Mattison easily making his way into the top 20 and being a fantasy starter most weeks in the second half. The team is likely to focus on the ground game with Dobbs under center, and Mattison will be the beneficiary.

Honorable Mentions:

Jonathan Taylor, IND; Austin Ekeler, LAC: These players fall into similar categories: former stars who missed time early this season with contract/injury situations but are back for the second half of the season. They both have a few recent productive games under their belts and will get plenty of touches moving forward.

 

Wide Receiver

Tee Higgins, CIN

Higgins follows his quarterback Burrow here. It was a miserable start to the season for the Bengals as a whole, and Higgins was front and center. He was shut out in Week 1 before 89 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2, making that first performance look like a blip.

Higgins proceeded to have a span from Weeks 3-7 in which he didn’t play two weeks (one because of bye, the other injury) and didn’t top 21 yards in any of the other three. Five catches for 69 yards in Week 8 was a decent day, and Higgins finally topped 100 yards last week.

He will miss Week 10 (while Chase is questionable), but Higgins is set up to return to his previous level of production when he's healthy. He has the same mixed bag of good and bad matchups as Burrow, but he will miss the Texans this week, and Week 18 against the Browns won’t be a fantasy playoff week in most leagues, so the negatives are mitigated.

Higgins won’t be a WR1; instead, he is a guy you can safely insert as a WR2/3 almost every week and expect better results the rest of the season.

Honorable Mentions

Diontae Johnson, PIT: Johnson is another guy returning from injury. He has stepped back into his role as the top receiver in Pittsburgh, and he should produce like a WR2/3 the rest of the year.

Jonathan Mingo, CAR: I loved Mingo coming out of college as a big receiver who could do damage down the field. He’s on a terrible team with no reason to leave him on the bench, and forming a connection with Bryce Young would help both players. Mingo has at least three receptions in five of eight games and at least five targets in six of eight games.

Dishonorable Mention: Jameson Williams, DET 

I was in on Williams before the season, thinking he would return from suspension and jump right into a good Lions’ offense. Every part of that has been on track except Williams “jumping right in.” Instead, he has six receptions in four games, producing just 71 yards and one touchdown. I believe in the skill, but Williams is more of a player to try again next year (though keep an eye just in case he finds his footing).

 

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid, BUF

Like Burrow, Kincaid has already begun his breakout. Let’s look at it the same way we did with Burrow, breaking down the good and bad stretches. Kincaid missed Week 6 with injury, and here are his splits before and after that time:

Games	Targets	Catches	Yards	Touchdowns	Std Fantasy Points	PPR Fantasy Points
Weeks 1-5	19	17	118	0	11.8	28.8
Weeks 7-9	26	23	221	1	26.1	49.1

Those aren't averages: those are Kincaid's totals over the first five games and the last three games. He has dwarfed his early production during the last three weeks. Dawson Knox caught just one pass for 10 yards in Week 7 and missed Weeks 8 and 9, and Kincaid has worked himself into a weekly option during that time.

This isn't a complete surprise, either. Kincaid was a first-round pick and the first tight end selected in a historically good class. Many expected him to star right away, but we were brought down to Earth by that "rookie tight end struggle" we always hear so much about. Getting half a season under his belt, however, and being put in a bigger role with Knox out has allowed Kincaid to show why he came in with such lofty expectations.

I expect Kincaid to be pretty much a weekly fantasy starter moving forward. It doesn't make sense for Buffalo to put him back on training wheels as they continue to find their way, and more weeks like we've seen recently are likely in store for Kincaid.

Honorable Mentions

Evan Engram, JAC: This only goes for standard; Engram is a weekly starter in PPR, but no touchdowns on 51 catches has left him below the top 15 tight ends in standard scoring. As much as he catches the ball, Engram has to score sooner or later.

Last year with Jacksonville, Engram scored every 18.25 catches; in his five seasons with the Giants, he scored every 16.4 receptions. Those figures would give him three touchdowns on the season, making him TE4 in PPR and TE8 in standard. I predict better fantasy production coming from Engram over the rest of the year.

Taysom Hill, NO: This is more of a plea to owners to pick up Hill. I wrote about Hill earlier this week; he’s a top-10 tight end in both formats and has a formula to keep producing, as he will throw, run, and catch the ball.

Dalton Schultz, HOU: Schultz is in the same boat as Kincaid, just with a twist: a young player (C.J. Stroud, in this case) is coming of age in real time, and the quarterback/tight end connection formed might be impossible to ignore.