MLB Pitchers Trending Upward: Corbin Burnes, Mitch Keller, Cole Ragans, Bryan Woo, Jack Flaherty and More

Discussing several MLB pitchers who are trending in the right direction over the past 30 days of play.

Last week, I wrote up stories on hitters who were trending upward and downward. Now in week 12 of the fantasy baseball season, it’s time to write up similar stories, but for pitchers.

Since pitchers aren’t playing as much as hitters, we’ll extend their stats to the past month (instead of the past 15 days). We’ll kick things off by talking about pitchers trending upward.

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Top Pitchers

Among qualified pitchers over the past month, there’s a bunch that have sub-2.00 earned run averages.

Baltimore Orioles’ Corbin Burnes leads the way with a 1.15 ERA. He’s 4-0 in six starts over that span, while striking out 35 batters over 39 innings.

Burnes is having a fantastic season in his first season in Baltimore, and is on track right now to top the numbers he set in his Cy Young season in 2021. While he’s unlikely to keep pitching this well for the rest of the season, Burnes is certainly one of the top fantasy pitchers in the game right now, and should be nearly untouchable - only deal him away if you are being overpaid.

Pittsburgh Pirates’ Mitch Keller is a bit of a surprise here. He’s got a 1.17 ERA over five starts in the past 30 days. Keller has 30 strikeouts over 30 2/3 innings and is 5-0 over that span.

Keller is on pace for his best season ever, and is pitching well above his career marks. Given we haven’t seen this kind of dominance from him, I’d mark him as a sell high candidate. However, I’d also want to be overpaid a bit in order to ship Keller away, because he might simply be entering the prime of his career and could keep up a high level of pitching for the rest of the season.

Kansas City Royals’ Cole Ragans is another surprising name among the ERA leaders over the past month. He’s 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA across five starts and 30 innings. Ragans has 41 strikeouts over that span.

Ragans excelled after joining the Royals in 2023, and it’s continued into the 2024 season so far. He’s quietly become one of the better pitchers in the game, and is outperforming the preseason expectations set for him, despite being a top-100 pick. He’s another possible sell-high candidate, but I’d personally rather ride the wave with him for as long as I could.

Seattle Mariners’ Bryan Woo has also emerged as one of the top young pitchers in the league. He’s 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA over his past five starts. He’s punched out 21 batters in 29 1/3 innings.

Woo’s strikeout numbers are a bit down in his second MLB season, but he’s been a far more effective pitcher. His trade value is way above his ADP, and while you could get a good return if you dealt him away, I’d again be more inclined to see things through with Woo, even though there should be a little regression coming.

New York Yankees’ Luis Gil continues to impress this season. Over his past five starts, Gil went 4-0 with a 1.41 ERA. He struck out 42 batters over his 32 innings pitched.

Gil was an afterthought in fantasy drafts this spring, and is now arguably the best fantasy pitcher in the game. I see no reason to trade him away right now, unless you get absolutely blown away with an offer. Gil is simply pitching too well and shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

Chicago White Sox’s Garrett Crochet continues to pitch well, and went 3-1 with a 1.24 ERA over his past five starts. Crochet had 39 strikeouts over 29 innings pitched.

The White Sox don’t have many highlights from this season, but Crochet has been a constant positive source for the team. He’s another pitcher who didn’t get much draft love, but is now one of the better fantasy pitchers in the game. He could be traded to a contender at some point (which would only raise his fantasy value), so he’s pretty close to untouchable to me at this point.

Yankees’ Carlos Rodon has a 6-0 mark in his past six starts. He’s got a 2.19 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 37 innings over that stretch.

Rodon has had a pretty good career, and seems to be finding his form from the 2022 season after an injury-plagued 2023 season. Many fantasy owners are probably making him close to untouchable, but I’d actually entertain trade offers for Rodon. His strikeout numbers are way down from previous seasons, and if he regresses in the ERA department, he could have a larger fantasy falloff than most of the guys we’ve discussed so far. 

Check out the FantasySP Trade Value Chart and see if you can find any players ranked near him that you’d be interested in acquiring. If you are unsure on whether a not a larger trade is fair, be sure to use the FantasySP Trade Analyzer before proposing a deal or hitting accept.

Detroit Tigers’ Jack Flaherty is another pitcher who has excelled over the past month. He’s 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA across four starts. He’s struck out 31 batters over 24 innings.

Flaherty has significantly outperformed his ADP from before the season. He’s enjoying one of the best seasons of his career, but even with that in mind, he’s a pitcher I’d want to hold on to. His strikeouts per nine innings mark is way up, which makes him a great fantasy asset, even if his ERA and win-loss record drops a bit as the season rolls along.

There’s several more starters I could talk about, but I also want to hit on some relievers in this story. Before that though, there’s one last starter I’d like to discuss, San Diego Padres’ Matt Waldron.

Waldron is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA across five starts in the past 30 days. He’s struck out 33 batters over 30 innings.

Waldron is still a streaming option at this point, but his own percentage is trending up over the past few weeks. I haven’t seen enough of Waldron to make a long-term call on him, but his trade value now is probably as high as it might get for the season, so if you scooped him up and are looking to sell high, now might be the time to accomplish that.

Now let’s get into some relievers, starting with St. Louis Cardinals’ Ryan Helsley.

Helsley has nine saves over the past 30 days, which covers nine games and innings. He’s struck out 10 batters but also allowed four runs.

Most closers don’t have great trade value in most fantasy leagues, but Helsley has some value as one of the top closers in saves. I’ve wondered if the Cardinals might ship Helsley out at the deadline if they are not in a great spot in the playoff picture, which would probably raise Helsley’s fantasy value.

Cleveland Guardians’ Emmanuel Clase has eight saves over the past month. He’s struck out 12 batters over 12 innings and also picked up a win over that span. Clase allowed just one earned run.

Clase is the best fantasy closer in the league right now, and unless you are desperate to flip him for a bigger position of need, I don’t see a reason to trade Clase.

Minnesota Twins’ Jhoan Duran, Yankees’ Clay Holmes, Boston Red Sox’s Craig Kimbrel and Seattle Mariners’ Andres Munoz are all at seven saves over the past month, while Pittsburgh’s David Bednar, Cincinnati Reds’ Alexis Diaz, Washington Nationals’ Kyle Finnegan, Atlanta Braves’ Raisel Iglesias, Milwaukee Brewers’ Trevor Megill and Arizona Diamondbacks' Paul Sewald are all at six saves.

I bring those numbers up to show how evenly matched a lot of the closers in the league are from a fantasy perspective. Your best option is to find the closers with the lowest ERAs and highest strikeout marks, because that’s what really separates one guy from the next.

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