MLB Wild Card Round Primer: Matchups, Players to Watch, Predictions and More
Taking a look at the MLB Wild Card matchups and offering up predictions for series and some players.
The long MLB regular season is over, and now it’s time for the playoffs to commence!
Let’s take a look at the Wild Card Round and offer some projections for the series and some players.
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Wild Card Notes
The best-of-three Wild Card Round opens on Tuesday and will be wrapped up by Thursday, at the latest. The better seed hosts all three games.
A full postseason schedule can be found on MLB.com.
American League
No. 6 Detroit Tigers at No. 3 Houston Astros
This is maybe the most intriguing Wild Card series to me.
You have the Astros, who overcame a super slow start to the season and won the AL West crown over the Seattle Mariners and defending World Series champion Texas Rangers. Then there’s the Tigers, who were written off before the trade deadline, only to catch fire and surge into the postseason.
Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena led the Astros at the plate. Diaz was the team’s hottest hitter over the past 30 days, while Altuve and Alvarez both have averages at .270 or above.
Framber Valdez was the team’s top pitcher, but Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco also performed well and ate a ton of innings. Valdez was especially good down the stretch, with a 1.73 earned run average over the past 30 days. Yusei Kikuchi was added at the trade deadline and helped the Astros prevail for the West title.
Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu form a fantastic 1-2-3 punch in the bullpen and help shorten the game for the Astros.
Riley Greene, Colt Keith and Matt Vierling were the Tigers’ top three hitters. Kerry Carpenter was also good when he was healthy. Parker Meadows was a surprise down the stretch, with a .274 average over the past 30 days, which only trailed Greene’s .280 among the team’s qualified hitters.
Tarik Skubal is the team’s ace and is very likely going to be the AL Cy Young winner. Keider Montero, Casey Mize and Reese Olson are some other arms who could give the Tigers some pitching length.
Tyler Holton, Beau Brieske, Sean Guenther, Brenan Hanifee, Will Vest and Jason Foley help make up a great Tigers’ bullpen, which really played a huge role in the team’s September run.
This series looks like a very lopsided one in favor of the Astros, and that’s who I think wins this series. But I expect the Tigers to be highly competitive, maybe even winning a game, and making Houston really have to dig deep to advance.
No. 5 Kansas City Royals at No. 4 Baltimore Orioles
The Royals were another feel good story this season, emerging after having one of the league’s worst records in 2023. The Orioles were expected to be great, but fizzled as the season went along.
Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander headline the Baltimore offense. Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins will also help out. Henderson was hot over the past 30 days, posting a .308 average. Mullins was also good at a .288 average. Rutschman hit just .213.
Corbin Burnes is the leader of the Baltimore starting rotation and posted a 1.20 ERA over the past 30 days. Cade Povich, Dean Kremer and Zach Eflin are other good starting options who all pitched well over the past month.
The Orioles’ bullpen is a serious problem though. Keegan Akin and Gregory Soto are the only two relievers with sub 3.00 ERAs for relievers with more than eight games pitched over the past 30 days.
Bobby Witt Jr. powers the Kansas City offense, and he’ll get help from Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino. Witt should be at the heart of everything the Royals’ offense accomplishes.
KC had a sneaky good rotation, with Seth Lugo leading the way after topping 200 innings pitched. Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Michael Wacha all pitched over 165 innings and had ERAs under 3.75. Ragans was the team’s top pitcher over the past 30 days, while Lugo and Wacha both excelled too, and Singer struggled.
Kris Bubic, Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber and Carlos Hernandez have pitched well over the last month and should lead the bullpen.
I like the Royals to steal this series in three games. Playoff baseball a lot of times comes down to the best bullpens, and Baltimore’s pen has some serious issues. KC’s offense is the perfect one to put pressure on the pen, and I think they come from behind a couple times and shock the Orioles.
National League
No. 6 New York Mets at No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers
The Mets snuck into the playoffs on the last day of the season, while the Brewers were the first team to clinch. New York competed in a pretty competitive NL East, while Milwaukee was at the top of an average NL Central.
William Contreras, Willy Adames, Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang were the Brewers’ top hitters this season. Rhys Hoskins adds a little pop to a team that can steal bases with the best of them. In the past 30 days, it’s been Chourio and Contreras serving as the team’s top hitters, while Adames and Joey Ortiz have 16 and 15 RBIs, respectively.
The Brewers’ rotation mixed and matched all season, with Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea pitching the most frames, but Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas helping out along the way. Civale and Myers were the team’s top starters over the past 30 days, while Peralta was pretty solid and Montas and Rea struggled.
Devin Williams is the closer for an elite bullpen. Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps and Aaron Ashby had sub 2.00 ERAs over the past month and will help the Crew finish off wins.
Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo guide the Mets’ offense, with Mark Vientos and J.D. Martinez providing more thump. Jose Iglesias was a hot hitter over the past month, while Vientos, Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez all having five or more home runs.
Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana are the team’s top starting pitchers. David Peterson and Tylor Megill were also good over the past 30 days. Quintana had a 0.72 ERA and won three games over his past four starts.
Edwin Diaz is the team’s closer and had a good final month. Most of the team’s other bullpen arms had ERAs over 3.50, so that could be a possible downfall for New York.
I like the Brewers to take this series in three games. I like their bullpen more, and that should help offset a bit less offense.
No. 5 Atlanta Braves at No. 4 San Diego Padres
Atlanta dealt with injuries all season, but did enough late to make the playoffs. San Diego hit its stride in the second half of the season and nearly caught the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West crown.
Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez and Jurickson Profar all had over 150 hits this season, while Jake Cronenworth (139) was just off that mark and Xander Bogaerts (113) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (110) would have hit that mark if they were healthy.
Arraez and Merrill are red hot going into the playoffs, while Profar, Machado and Tatis all had averages over .265 in the final month of play.
Dylan Cease and Michael King carried the rotation this season. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Cease and King all had ERAs at 3.60 or below in the final 30 days of play.
Robert Suarez was the team’s closer, but struggled in September. Tanner Scott got a couple save chances and pitched much better. Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon also pitched well in the final month.
Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson were the Braves’ top hitters this season. Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies returned from injuries and helped the Braves make the postseason. Olson, Harris and Jorge Soler had averages over .300 in September, while Ramon Laureano and Ozuna hit over .280.
Chris Sale was the team’s best starter all season and is probably the NL Cy Young, but he could miss the series with a back injury. Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach will lead the rotation if Sale can’t go.
Raisel Iglesias is the team’s closer, but struggled a bit over the past 30 days. Joe Jimenez had the best ERA among relievers with over eight appearances, and Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee both had sub 4.00 ERAs.
I think the Padres will be too much for the Braves in this series. Atlanta fought valiantly to even make the playoffs, but I’d be shocked if they can take down San Diego.
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