MLB Division Series Preview: Matchups, Star Players and Predictions

The MLB Wild Card Round is in the books and the Division Series is up next!

Like we did before the first round, let’s look at the four Division Series matchups and offer some projections for the series and note some players.

The series are a best-of-five, with the higher seed hosting games 1-2 and then 5, if necessary. The lower-seeded team will host game 3 and then 4, again if necessary.

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National League

No. 4 San Diego Padres at No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers

The Padres took care of the Braves in the opening round, winning 4-0 and 5-4. San Diego gets rewarded with a series against division foe and No. 1 seed Los Angeles. The Padres won 8 of the 13 regular season matchups between the teams.

Fernando Tatis Jr. led the Padres with four hits in the Wild Card Series. Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill had three hits each. Kyle Higashioka homered twice.

Michael King earned a win in the team’s first playoff game, working seven scoreless innings. He struck out 12, walked none and allowed just five hits.

Joe Musgrove started the second game, but left with an injury. That might keep him off the roster for the next round, and maybe the rest of the postseason.

Jason Adam and Robert Suarez each pitched in both Wild Card games. Jeremiah Estrada, Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing were the only other pitchers used by the Padres in the first round.

The Dodgers are loaded with talent, especially their hitters.

Shohei Ohtani is the soon-to-be NL MVP and led the team in hits and homers, and several other stats. Teoscar Hernandez was second on the team with 160 hits, while Freddie Freeman had 153 knocks. 

Mookie Betts only played 116 games, but had 130 hits. Will Smith is another solid hitter. Max Muncy only played 73 games, but popped 15 homers in that time. Gavin Lux also posted some solid totals across 139 games played. 

Ohtani was especially hot in the final 30 days of the season, hitting .411. Hernandez hit .308. Muncy (.242), Freeman (.236) and Betts (.233) had a bit of a slow final month.

The pitching staff was injured all season, and is the team’s biggest question mark coming into the postseason.

Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Landon Knack and Yoshinobu Yamamoto all made four starts in the final 30 days, with Knack also coming out of the bullpen once. Yamamoto was the only one with a sub 4.00 earned run average.

Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Dakota Hudson, Michael Kopech, Alex Vesia and Ryan Brasier pitched in eight or more games over the past month. Treinen didn’t allow a run, while Vesia had a 1.80 ERA and Kopech a 2.08 ERA. Brasier (3.52), Phillips (6.00) and Hudson (6.23) weren’t as successful on the mound.

The Dodgers have the better lineup, but I like the Padres’ team more overall and think they take this series.

No. 6 New York Mets at No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies

The Mets won a thrilling three-game Wild Card series over the Brewers to advance to take on No. 2 Philadelphia. The Phillies won seven of the 13 games between the teams this season. 

Mets’ Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos all had three hits in the first postseason series. Pete Alonso hit the team’s lone homer in the series, but it was a go-ahead, three-run shot in the top of the ninth inning to extend the team’s season. Francisco Lindor had a .429 on-base percentage.

Jose Quintana started game 3 of the Wild Card Round, going six scoreless innings. Sean Manaea allowed two runs over five innings in his start. Luis Severino was tagged for four runs over six frames in his start.

Jose Butto and Ryne Stanek each pitched in two games, with Stanek working two scoreless innings. Edwin Diaz worked 1 2/3 scoreless frames and got a win. Reed Garrett, Phil Maton and David Peterson appeared in a game each.

Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos all had 150 or more hits this regular season for Philly. Trea Turner had 149 knocks across 121 games, while Kyle Schwarber had 142 hits. Bryson Stott only hit .245, but has some memorable postseason moments already.

Harper was the team’s hottest hitter in September, hitting .305. Castellanos was at .296, while Turner was at .268. Schwarber had a team-leading seven homers in the final 30 days.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola power the Phillies’ rotation, while Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez are a couple more starting options. Suarez and Nola had ERAs over 5 in the final month, while Wheeler and Sanchez were under 2.50.

Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, Tanner Banks, Jose Ruiz, Matt Strahm, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez were the team’s most-used relievers in September. Strahm didn’t allow a run across nine outings.

I think the Phillies will take care of the Mets, maybe losing just once in the series.

American League

No. 5 Kansas City Royals at No. 1 New York Yankees

Kansas City upset Baltimore with 1-0 and 2-1 wins in the Wild Card Round. The Royals next test is the top-seeded Yankees. New York took the season series 5-2.

Michael Massey and Bobby Witt Jr. had three hits each for Kansas City in the first round. Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez had two hits each. 

Cole Ragans got the win in game 1 after working six scoreless innings. Seth Lugo was solid in game 2, allowing a run across 4 1/3 innings.

Angel Zerpa got the win out of the pen in game 2. Lucas Erceg pitched in both games, picking up two saves. Sam Long and Kris Bubic each worked 1 2/3 scoreless innings. John Schreiber worked a scoreless inning as well in the first series.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto lead the Yankees into the postseason. Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres also had over 150 hits this season. Giancarlo Stanton provides some pop, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. was a nice trade deadline acquisition. 

Torres hit .316 over the final 30 days, while Judge was at .304. Soto hit .270, while Anthony Rizzo was at .234.

Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes led New York in innings pitched this season, with Marcus Stroman and Luis Gil over 150 innings too. Gerrit Cole got 95 innings across 17 starts.

Rodon (2.38 ERA) and Cole (2.77 ERA) carried the team’s starting rotation in the final month. Gil and Clarke Schmidt made five starts each, and had 4.00 and 3.65 ERAs, respectively. 

Clay Holmes, Ian Hamilton, Tim Hill, Tommy Kahnle and Luke Weaver all pitched in eight or more games over the final month. Each reliever had an ERA under 2.75.

The Royals have been a fun story, but I think their special season comes to an end here. I just think the Yankees have too much talent to lose more than a game in this series.

No. 6. Detroit Tigers at No. 2 Cleveland Guardians

The Tigers shocked a lot of people when they swept the Astros in the opening round, winning 3-1 and 5-2 contests. They now face a division foe in No. 2 Cleveland. The Guardians won 7 of the 13 games between the teams this season.

Jake Rogers had three hits to lead Detroit in the Wild Card Round. Andy Ibanez drove in three runs on two hits, while Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows had two hits each. Colt Keith and Spencer Torkelson each had OBPs over .350 in the first round.

Tarik Skubal got the win in game 1, working six scoreless innings. Detroit went with a bullpen game to get the job done in the second contest against the Astros.

Beau Brieske, Tyler Holton and Will Vest pitched in both playoff games, while Jason Foley, Sean Guenther, Brenan Hanifee, Brant Hurter and Jackson Jobe also pitched. 

Cleveland’s offense is powered by Jose Ramirez. Andres Gimenez had 147 hits, while Steven Kwan collected 140 knocks in just 122 games. Josh Naylor adds some pop to the mix.

Over the past 30 days, Ramirez has a .318 average. Gimenez hit .259, Lane Thomas was at .232 and Naylor at .231. Those were the four hitters that qualified in that timeframe.

Tanner Bibee covered the most innings for Cleveland this inning, with Ben Lively also topping 150 frames. Both had ERAs under 3.20 over the past 30 days.

Matthew Boyd had a 3.18 ERA across four starts, while Joey Cantillo was at a 2.25 ERA across four starts. 

Hunter Gaddis pitched 12 games over the past month and had a 1.54 ERA in those games. Tim Herrin had a 0.90 ERA across 11 appearances, while closer Emmanuel Clase didn’t allow a run in 10 appearances. Eli Morgan had a 1.29 ERA across 10 appearances, while Cade Smith, Andrew Walters and Erik Sabrowski all didn’t allow runs in eight or nine appearances.

This series is a toss up to me, so I’ll give the edge to the Guardians. This might be the best Division Series this season.